Thursday, October 21, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
Perfect Season?
Yes, it’s early, and this is likely as ignorant of reality as a Cubs fan expecting to break the streak, but I am already excited. Not just because we are 2-0 in the preseason. That holds about as much weight as Calipari’s claims of ignorance, but I have been very impressed with several factors in the recent wins.
The first is the newfound resistance to folding when the game is on the line. It’s a well-known tendency of the Grizz to play great for several quarters only to fold in the third or the fourth quarter. Well in these first two games, our hometown heroes have had to bounce back from some kind of deficit. In the first game, against the Pacers, the Grizzlies lost their four point halftime lead to begin the fourth quarter down five. It seemed like it was going to be the same ole same ole from the Grizz. Give up, game over, lose by fifteen. But no, the team rallied for a comeback, outscoring the Pacers by seven in the fourth on the way to a narrow two point victory.
In the next game, the Hawks dominated the Grizzlies on the way to a 54-33 lead at half. Thirty three points in the first half. Pretty pathetic. But, again, the Grizz bounced back with an explosive second half, and in the third quarter outscoring the Hawks 42-18. We were able to hang on at the end of the fourth to send the game into extra time. At this point, the cynic would just assume that this affords the Grizz another chance to blow the game. But again, the Grizz came through in the clutch to ensure a hard fought road victory. Neither of these games were pretty wins, but in each the Grizz found a way to grind out a win despite 27 turnovers in the first game and 22 in the second. They were able to step up on defense when necessary and pull out the W.
Also, I saw some potential in the bench performances over the first two games. Not exactly perfect play, but there were some shining moments. Hasheem threw up ten points in the first half on 3-3 shooting. Sure, he managed later to foul out with only ten points, but hey, it’s still the preseason. Sam Young had two solid games, with six and thirteen points. But most impressively, Acie Law had six points against the Pacers and against the Hawks, had nineteen to lead the Grizzlies in scoring. He did it everywhere- midrange, slashing, three-balls, and free throws. He looks like he could be a huge addition to the notoriously weak Grizz bench.
It may not be much to get excited about. But hey, I’m a Grizz fan. You gotta find some sustenance somewhere. Let’s see if we can come out strong again tomorrow night against the Hornets. And while on the topic, who’d have thought that a guy named Quincy Pondexter would turn out to be an NBA player? Go figure.
Michael
The first is the newfound resistance to folding when the game is on the line. It’s a well-known tendency of the Grizz to play great for several quarters only to fold in the third or the fourth quarter. Well in these first two games, our hometown heroes have had to bounce back from some kind of deficit. In the first game, against the Pacers, the Grizzlies lost their four point halftime lead to begin the fourth quarter down five. It seemed like it was going to be the same ole same ole from the Grizz. Give up, game over, lose by fifteen. But no, the team rallied for a comeback, outscoring the Pacers by seven in the fourth on the way to a narrow two point victory.
In the next game, the Hawks dominated the Grizzlies on the way to a 54-33 lead at half. Thirty three points in the first half. Pretty pathetic. But, again, the Grizz bounced back with an explosive second half, and in the third quarter outscoring the Hawks 42-18. We were able to hang on at the end of the fourth to send the game into extra time. At this point, the cynic would just assume that this affords the Grizz another chance to blow the game. But again, the Grizz came through in the clutch to ensure a hard fought road victory. Neither of these games were pretty wins, but in each the Grizz found a way to grind out a win despite 27 turnovers in the first game and 22 in the second. They were able to step up on defense when necessary and pull out the W.
Also, I saw some potential in the bench performances over the first two games. Not exactly perfect play, but there were some shining moments. Hasheem threw up ten points in the first half on 3-3 shooting. Sure, he managed later to foul out with only ten points, but hey, it’s still the preseason. Sam Young had two solid games, with six and thirteen points. But most impressively, Acie Law had six points against the Pacers and against the Hawks, had nineteen to lead the Grizzlies in scoring. He did it everywhere- midrange, slashing, three-balls, and free throws. He looks like he could be a huge addition to the notoriously weak Grizz bench.
It may not be much to get excited about. But hey, I’m a Grizz fan. You gotta find some sustenance somewhere. Let’s see if we can come out strong again tomorrow night against the Hornets. And while on the topic, who’d have thought that a guy named Quincy Pondexter would turn out to be an NBA player? Go figure.
Michael
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Michael Heisley: I was wrong
“I bet on my team every night.” –Pete Rose
“I did take a banned substance. And for that, I am very sorry and deeply regretful." –Alex Rodriguez
“There’s no question I’m doing what I should have probably done earlier.” –Michael Heisley
Rose. A-Rod. Heisley. Three immensely successful men. Three men who struggled to admit their mistakes, but eventually did.
The Commercial Appeal reported earlier tonight that Grizzly management has caved in concerning the contract disputes with Xavier Henry and Grievis Vasquez and are now closer than ever to reaching an agreement. According to Ronald Tillery, all performance incentives in the rookies' contracts have been removed, and both Henry and Vasquez will receive the full 120% salary automatically if they sign. The New York Times has reported that Wallace and Henry's agent Arn Tellem will talk Thursday.
I ask that you go back with me a few weeks. Michael Heisley, for the first time ever, had decided to go on the Chris Vernon Show. When asked why he was the only owner taking this type of stand, Heisley said this:
Heisley: "I don’t know why they don't do it and quite bluntly I don't really care why they don't do it. I basically am trying to run my team. I'm trying to run my business. They're trying to run theirs. It's a good question. Why don't they do it? I don’t really care what the answer is.
As someone who has been relatively pro-Heisley for most of my fanhood, it was after comments like this one (ie the now famous, "I've never seen the collective bargaining agreement") that I threw my hands up in the air and finally joined much of grizz nation (country?) in their anti-Heisley sentiments. While it is extremely good news for grizzlifers out there that our owner has finally come around and admitted his stupidity, I'm afraid that the damage has already been done. It will be harder than normal next spring to get potential signees in to workout. Why would an agent want to work with Heisley?
But none of that matters to me right now. I'm excited to know that these two rookies will be in a grizzly uniform this season and that they will be contributors on what is becoming an average bench (compared to a horrible one last season). With our core returning, a better bench, and a weaker western conference, the grizzlies seem to be in the best position in recent memory to compete for playoff wins. It's year 3 of the infamous "3 year plan" and if the team produces like Heisley claims they should, this grizzlifer will be willing to forgive him for the gross misstep of this offseason.
More to come from grizzlife, stay tuned...
I live the grizzlife and love it,
Paul
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Grizz New Advertising
Make sure you read this article in today's Commercial Appeal.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2010/sep/02/grizzlies-launch-press-to-stir-fans/
My 3 favorite new slogans are:
"We believe underdogs bite harder."
"We believe in showing the world what Memphis means."
"We believe in jerseys with blue collars."
Let's Get it Grizz!
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Xavier Henry on the Trade Block?
File this under "I Told You So." According to the Commercial Appeal's Ron Tillery, the Memphis Grizzlies have received several offers from teams wanting to trade for #12 pick Xavier Henry. Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley is insisting that Henry will not be traded and that the team's main focus is working out a deal with him.
The point of contention in the negotiations with Henry and his agent Arn Tellem has been rookie bonuses. Typically, rookies receive 120% of the salary assigned to them by the collective bargaining agreement. However, Heisley wants to change that tradition and feels that Henry must earn that extra 20%. Despite letting last year's first-round draft picks (Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carroll) earn that 20% through participation in workouts and the NBA Summer League, Heisley wants Henry to earn his bonus through selection to the All-Rookie team. Obviously, Henry and Tellem are upset that they are not receiving traditional rookie treatment and are incensed at the offer of a Rookie Team selection for bonuses.
By offering Henry his 20% bonus, Heisley is sending the message that individual accomplishments are more important than team accomplishments. Thabeet and Carroll's bonuses were earned through workouts and Summer League, activities that benefit both the player and the team. Henry's charge to make the All-Rookie team is a purely individual pursuit. If he feels that he doesn't have the requisite stats to make that team, Henry will be gunning for his own shot when he should be playing team basketball. It's a horrible way to motivate a player. If the Grizzlies had told Rudy Gay in his contract negotiations, "Rudy, we're going to give you a 20% bonus if you make the All-NBA team," how do you think that would affect Rudy's play this season? He would be going for 30 points a night and crippling the team in the process! And that's exactly what is happening with Xavier Henry.
I've said it all summer and I'll repeat myself again: the Grizzlies are doing irreparable harm to the team with the way they are handling the contract negotiations with #12 pick Xavier Henry. Prospects already don't want to work out for the team. These negotiations certainly won't improve that. Future Grizzlies' draft picks will refuse to play for the team since they know how horribly management treats players.
Michael, we need Xavier Henry on this year's Memphis Grizzlies. He is a phenomenal shooter, adds length to the guard position and is a top-flight athlete. Losing him would put our playoff chances in serious jeopardy. Please get off your high horse and sign him.
Owen
Monday, August 16, 2010
Grizzlies 2010-2011 Schedule Released
Sorry I've been away from the blogosphere for a while, Grizzlies fans. We, the Grizzlife team, have been working on revolutionizing the blog and becoming a beneficial member of the Memphis community through the development of a multi-faceted marketing strategy. We'll provide more information about that in the coming days and weeks. But enough about us; let's talk Grizzlies.
As you might be aware, the NBA released its full 2010-2011 schedule on August 10. Here is a link to the full schedule, but I want to point out some of the highlights. First, the Memphis Grizzlies will kick off their 2010-2011 season at home against the Atlanta Hawks on October 27. The Forum is sure to be rocking that night as Memphis gets its first look at a (hopefully) playoff-bound team.
The first month of the season will arguably be the most interesting. Twelve of the first eighteen games on the Grizzlies' slate are against teams that made the playoffs last season. By November 30, the Grizzlies will have hosted the Hawks, Suns, Mavericks, Celtics, Trail Blazers, Heat and Lakers. Additionally, we will have traveled to play the Mavericks, Magic and Cavaliers. I'm not going to sugarcoat it: the first month of the season will be brutal. If we can steal some games from elite teams and beat the teams we're supposed to, we could enter December with a great record. What hurt the team so much last year was the 1-8 start. Although we eventually ditched AI and started playing as a team, that start proved to be too much to overcome and ultimately kept us out of the playoffs. We have a chance to reverse that trend this year.
Outside of the first month of the season, there are many other great matchups throughout the season. On December 29, University of Memphis alum Tyreke Evans leads the Sacramento Kings into FedEx Forum. In my opinion, the Kings are one of the best young teams in the NBA and have a chance to win a title or two down the road. On January 4, Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder come to town. The Thunder have become a psuedo-rival of the Grizzlies and are arguably the most well-run team in the league. In a two-week span in January, two elite Eastern Conference teams, the Chicago Bulls and the Orlando Magic, visit the Bluff City.
There are certainly many more exciting games on the schedule, but those are some that intrigued me. I encourage you to buy a season ticket (or at least come to as many games as you can). This year's Grizzlies team needs us more than ever and we as a city need to come together and show ownership that we have what it takes to support an NBA franchise.
Meet me at the Forum,
Owen
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Grizzlies Sign PG Acie Law
According to multiple league sources, including The Commercial Appeal's Jason Smith, the Grizzlies have come to terms with point guard Acie Law on a 1-year contract worth almost $900,000. News broke yesterday that Memphis was in talks with the 4th-year point guard, who spent the 2009-2010 season with Golden State, Charlotte and Chicago.
Law has been a backup point guard for his entire NBA career and will fill that role for the Grizzlies, who feel that another backup is needed for Mike Conley. Rookie Greivis Vasquez is coming off ankle surgery this offseason and had a disappointing summer league.
How will this move impact the Grizzlies as they head into the season? Hardly at all. Conley will get at least 30 to 35 of the 48 minutes at point guard, easily the Grizzlies' weakest position. Law and Vasquez will be available to give Conley a breather but they likely won't play a big role on the team at all.
Law has averaged around 4 points and 2 assists per game in his career and will likely log similar numbers for the Grizzlies. If I were you, I wouldn't pay much attention to this signing; the Grizzlies' success (or lack thereof) at point guard lies with Conley, not Law or Vasquez. Unfortunately, the Grizzlies could not swing a trade for a starting point guard to replace Conley, who is better suited for a 6th or 7th man backup role.
Do you really need a PG in basketball??
Owen
Law has been a backup point guard for his entire NBA career and will fill that role for the Grizzlies, who feel that another backup is needed for Mike Conley. Rookie Greivis Vasquez is coming off ankle surgery this offseason and had a disappointing summer league.
How will this move impact the Grizzlies as they head into the season? Hardly at all. Conley will get at least 30 to 35 of the 48 minutes at point guard, easily the Grizzlies' weakest position. Law and Vasquez will be available to give Conley a breather but they likely won't play a big role on the team at all.
Law has averaged around 4 points and 2 assists per game in his career and will likely log similar numbers for the Grizzlies. If I were you, I wouldn't pay much attention to this signing; the Grizzlies' success (or lack thereof) at point guard lies with Conley, not Law or Vasquez. Unfortunately, the Grizzlies could not swing a trade for a starting point guard to replace Conley, who is better suited for a 6th or 7th man backup role.
Do you really need a PG in basketball??
Owen
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Grizzlies to Host Bulls on MLK Day
The NBA announced last night that the Grizzlies will play host to the Chicago Bulls in the nationally-televised Civil Rights Game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (January 17). The announcement was part of a special wherein the NBA announced many of its marquee, nationally-televised matchups.
To no one's surprise, Memphis will have just one game on national TV this season. If Dr. King had not been assassinated here and if the city did not have the National Civil Rights Museum, the Grizzlies would have zero. This game is merely a vehicle for the league to celebrate its African-American heritage and the accomplishments of Dr. King and other civil rights leaders. It's not about basketball.
The full regular season schedule will be released on August 10th and you can count on GrizzLife to profile the upcoming season's biggest games.
Owen
To no one's surprise, Memphis will have just one game on national TV this season. If Dr. King had not been assassinated here and if the city did not have the National Civil Rights Museum, the Grizzlies would have zero. This game is merely a vehicle for the league to celebrate its African-American heritage and the accomplishments of Dr. King and other civil rights leaders. It's not about basketball.
The full regular season schedule will be released on August 10th and you can count on GrizzLife to profile the upcoming season's biggest games.
Owen
Monday, August 2, 2010
Grizzlies, Zach Randolph Talk Extension
Late last week, multiple news outlets reported that the Memphis Grizzlies are discussing a multi-year contract extension with power forward Zach Randolph. Randolph, who is coming off an All-Star season in which he averaged 20.8 points and 11.7 rebounds, is set to make $17.3 million this season. This season will be the second of the 2-year contract he signed with the team last summer.
Last month, the Grizzlies refused to swap Randolph for Timberwolves forward Al Jefferson. Furthermore, the team then insisted that Randolph is not on the trading block. The 2-year deal was expected to be all the Grizzlies would get from Randolph, who will be a free agent at the end of next season. However, GM Chris Wallace has confirmed that talks are ongoing between the team and Randolph. The length of the extension is reportedly between four and five years.
Randolph's reasons for re-signing with the team are easy to discern. If he signs a deal now, he can lock himself into guaranteed money for a few years and will not have to negotiate a deal under the new collective bargaining agreement, which will be in place next summer. He knows that his value will never be higher than it is right now and he wants to get paid right now. I get it.
The Grizzlies' reasons for a new contract for Randolph are also simple. In my opinion, management has fallen in love with a player who reinvented himself this past season and proved that he can be a valuable contributor for the team. Wallace and Heisley have let an All-Star appearance, 20 points and 11 boards cloud their judgment. They want to believe that Randolph will continue to produce at that high level for the next five years and they are willing to pay him millions to find out.
But don't despair, Grizzlies, fans; I'm here to sort everything out. I am going to tell you why re-signing Zach Randolph to a four or five-year extension is just about the worst thing the Grizzlies can do right now.
The simple reason that it is a horrible idea to sign Randolph right now is age. He just turned 29, has already logged about 600 NBA game and is entering his 10th season. That trifecta should be a giant red flag for the Grizzlies, but it isn't. So i'll be blunt: history has proven that NBA big men age rapidly once they hit 30/their 10th season. Their stats plummet and they become a waste of space on a team's bench. The problem is, teams love to pay big money to a veteran big man because they are blinded by the stats the player has put up for the past several seasons.
Don't believe me? Let me show you the stats. For his career, Zach Randolph has averaged 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds. If you throw out his first two seasons (in which he was used sparingly), he has averaged 20 points and 10.1 rebounds. Those numbers are pretty good, right? They most certainly are. Randolph has been one of the NBA's most consistent forwards for seven years, averaging between 17 and 23 points and 8 and 11 rebounds in each of those seven seasons. It is no surprise that he now has an All-Star game on his resume.
Now I would like to compare the first 9 seasons of Zach Randolph's career to the first 8-11 seasons of ten similar big name forward/centers of the last 25 or so years. Let's take a look...
For the first nine seasons of his career, Shawn Marion averaged 18.3 points and 10 rebounds. For the first ten seasons of his career, Alonzo Mourning averaged 20.3 points and 9.8 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Elton Brand averaged 20.3 points and 10.2 rebounds.
For the first ten seasons of his career, Derrick Coleman averaged 18.5 points and 10 rebounds.
For the first ten seasons of his career, Terry Cummings averaged 21.3 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Antoine Walker averaged 19.8 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Vin Baker averaged 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds.
For the first eight seasons of his career, Tom Gugliotta averaged 16.4 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first eleven seasons of his career, Shawn Kemp averaged 16.8 points and 9.5 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Buck Williams averaged 16.1 points and 11.7 rebounds.
Man, those are great numbers! Take notice of how similar those players were to Randolph in his first nine seasons (17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds). Now, let's look at how those players did after they finished their first nine or ten seasons.
In his next two seasons, Marion averaged12.4 points and 7.4 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Mourning averaged 7.8 points and 4.8 rebounds.
In his next two seasons, Brand averaged 13.3 points and 6.8 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Coleman averaged 10.4 points and 6.9 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Cummings averaged 7.4 points and 4.9 rebounds.
In his next three seasons, Walker averaged 9.8 points and 4.5 rebounds.
In his next four seasons, Baker averaged 6.1 points and 3.8 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Gugliotta averaged 5.1 points and 4.1 rebounds.
In his next three seasons, Kemp averaged 6.5 points and 4.5 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Williams averaged 10 points and 9 rebounds.
As you can see, there was an incredible statistical drop-off for every player on that list! Just a couple short years after they were making the All-NBA team, they were riding the bench and poisoning their locker rooms. Those ten players' points-per-game dropped by an average of 9.6 points and their rebounds fell by an average of 3.9. If Randolph's next few seasons go normally, he will average around 8 points and 5 rebounds. Should the Grizzlies pay millions for 8 points and 5 boards? I say no.
Will Randolph's next few seasons happen this way? Who knows. I do expect him to have another big year this year (I'm thinking 17-19 points and 10-11 rebounds) and then rapidly decline like his predecessors. But here's the kicker: we have Randolph under contract for exactly one more year!!! That means we can reap his benefits while he still has them and then get rid of him at the perfect time, right before he starts to fade.
Chris and Michael, please let someone else overpay for a veteran forward who, if history repeats itself yet again, will be a waste of space in three years. If we sign Randolph to a four or five year deal, it will cripple the franchise. Like I said, he will never get more money than he can this offseason. Don't let the Grizzlies be the ones giving it to him.
Owen
Last month, the Grizzlies refused to swap Randolph for Timberwolves forward Al Jefferson. Furthermore, the team then insisted that Randolph is not on the trading block. The 2-year deal was expected to be all the Grizzlies would get from Randolph, who will be a free agent at the end of next season. However, GM Chris Wallace has confirmed that talks are ongoing between the team and Randolph. The length of the extension is reportedly between four and five years.
Randolph's reasons for re-signing with the team are easy to discern. If he signs a deal now, he can lock himself into guaranteed money for a few years and will not have to negotiate a deal under the new collective bargaining agreement, which will be in place next summer. He knows that his value will never be higher than it is right now and he wants to get paid right now. I get it.
The Grizzlies' reasons for a new contract for Randolph are also simple. In my opinion, management has fallen in love with a player who reinvented himself this past season and proved that he can be a valuable contributor for the team. Wallace and Heisley have let an All-Star appearance, 20 points and 11 boards cloud their judgment. They want to believe that Randolph will continue to produce at that high level for the next five years and they are willing to pay him millions to find out.
But don't despair, Grizzlies, fans; I'm here to sort everything out. I am going to tell you why re-signing Zach Randolph to a four or five-year extension is just about the worst thing the Grizzlies can do right now.
The simple reason that it is a horrible idea to sign Randolph right now is age. He just turned 29, has already logged about 600 NBA game and is entering his 10th season. That trifecta should be a giant red flag for the Grizzlies, but it isn't. So i'll be blunt: history has proven that NBA big men age rapidly once they hit 30/their 10th season. Their stats plummet and they become a waste of space on a team's bench. The problem is, teams love to pay big money to a veteran big man because they are blinded by the stats the player has put up for the past several seasons.
Don't believe me? Let me show you the stats. For his career, Zach Randolph has averaged 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds. If you throw out his first two seasons (in which he was used sparingly), he has averaged 20 points and 10.1 rebounds. Those numbers are pretty good, right? They most certainly are. Randolph has been one of the NBA's most consistent forwards for seven years, averaging between 17 and 23 points and 8 and 11 rebounds in each of those seven seasons. It is no surprise that he now has an All-Star game on his resume.
Now I would like to compare the first 9 seasons of Zach Randolph's career to the first 8-11 seasons of ten similar big name forward/centers of the last 25 or so years. Let's take a look...
For the first nine seasons of his career, Shawn Marion averaged 18.3 points and 10 rebounds. For the first ten seasons of his career, Alonzo Mourning averaged 20.3 points and 9.8 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Elton Brand averaged 20.3 points and 10.2 rebounds.
For the first ten seasons of his career, Derrick Coleman averaged 18.5 points and 10 rebounds.
For the first ten seasons of his career, Terry Cummings averaged 21.3 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Antoine Walker averaged 19.8 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Vin Baker averaged 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds.
For the first eight seasons of his career, Tom Gugliotta averaged 16.4 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first eleven seasons of his career, Shawn Kemp averaged 16.8 points and 9.5 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Buck Williams averaged 16.1 points and 11.7 rebounds.
Man, those are great numbers! Take notice of how similar those players were to Randolph in his first nine seasons (17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds). Now, let's look at how those players did after they finished their first nine or ten seasons.
In his next two seasons, Marion averaged12.4 points and 7.4 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Mourning averaged 7.8 points and 4.8 rebounds.
In his next two seasons, Brand averaged 13.3 points and 6.8 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Coleman averaged 10.4 points and 6.9 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Cummings averaged 7.4 points and 4.9 rebounds.
In his next three seasons, Walker averaged 9.8 points and 4.5 rebounds.
In his next four seasons, Baker averaged 6.1 points and 3.8 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Gugliotta averaged 5.1 points and 4.1 rebounds.
In his next three seasons, Kemp averaged 6.5 points and 4.5 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Williams averaged 10 points and 9 rebounds.
As you can see, there was an incredible statistical drop-off for every player on that list! Just a couple short years after they were making the All-NBA team, they were riding the bench and poisoning their locker rooms. Those ten players' points-per-game dropped by an average of 9.6 points and their rebounds fell by an average of 3.9. If Randolph's next few seasons go normally, he will average around 8 points and 5 rebounds. Should the Grizzlies pay millions for 8 points and 5 boards? I say no.
Will Randolph's next few seasons happen this way? Who knows. I do expect him to have another big year this year (I'm thinking 17-19 points and 10-11 rebounds) and then rapidly decline like his predecessors. But here's the kicker: we have Randolph under contract for exactly one more year!!! That means we can reap his benefits while he still has them and then get rid of him at the perfect time, right before he starts to fade.
Chris and Michael, please let someone else overpay for a veteran forward who, if history repeats itself yet again, will be a waste of space in three years. If we sign Randolph to a four or five year deal, it will cripple the franchise. Like I said, he will never get more money than he can this offseason. Don't let the Grizzlies be the ones giving it to him.
Owen
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Lorenzen Wright Dead at 34
When Lorenzen Wright's body was found in Germantown yesterday afternoon, details were hazy at first. Some reports denied the body found in the woods behind the Fieldstone apartment complex was Wright's while others indicated that it was. As people began to gather at the scene, many held out hope that it was a mistake; that Wright was still alive. As the evening approached, however, it became clear that the body was that of the 34-year old former Booker T. Washington, University of Memphis and Memphis Grizzlies star. That is when the realization sunk in: the city of Memphis had not just lost one of its greatest athletes, but one of its greatest ambassadors.
I first heard the news when I got off work at 5 p.m. A report I heard on the radio indicated that Wright's body was found just across the street from the entrance to TPC Southwind near Hacks Cross and Winchester. I realized that I was very close to that area, so I decided to go to the scene. I didn't know why I decided to go, really. I knew it would be a major news story and I wanted to be there to cover it. But there was more to it than that. I felt I had to go; Lorenzen was such a powerful figure on and off the court and my devotion to the Tigers, Grizzlies and the city of Memphis made the loss that much more devestating. Most of all, however, I wanted to get peoples' reactions. I was deeply saddened by the tragedy and wanted to hear people echo what I felt. Echo they did.
I arrived on the scene at about 5:15, just as a crowd was beginning to swell. Traffic police directed traffic on Hacks Cross since the right lane was blocked by dozens of parked cars. I too parked my car and walked toward the wooded area via Callis Cutoff Road. Dozens of people around me were doing the same. The first person I saw was another Tiger and NBA great, Penny Hardaway. I had always seen him smiling, but he was anything but that yesterday afternoon. I approached him and simply asked for his thoughts. He informed me that he had just learned about the body and was shocked at the news. "There's this unbelievable feeling that you have in your gut," he said, searching for words to explain the inexplicable. "It's shocking and sad at the same time." Although sunglasses hid his eyes, his body language told the whole story. His shoulders slumped, making him seem much shorter than his 6'-7". He was visibly choked up and kept shaking his head, searching for answers for a "senseless tragedy."
After talking with Penny, I sought out Geoff Calkins, a longtime Commercial Appeal columnist. Geoff covered Lorenzen many times throughout his career and couldn't have been more impressed with him. "He was the nicest, most upbeat guy in the locker room," Calkins said. "This is just a terrible tragedy." Like Hardaway, Calkins' body language said even more. His voice was hollow and he wore an abject frown on his sunken face.
By 5:45, the crowd at the scene had grown to 250. Yellow police tape and a barricade of squad cars kept the crowd at a 50-yard distance from the woods. 12-15 uniformed officers stood by their cars, but they weren't forced to hold people back from the area where the body was found. Nobody wanted to see. Nobody wanted to believe that Lorenzen Wright was really gone.
It is still too early to tell how exactly Wright went missing and how his body ended up in the woods behind the intersection of Hacks Cross and Callis Cutoff Road. What is known, however, is that a 911 call was placed from Wright's cell phone early in the morning on July 19. The call was dropped, but not before multiple gunshots could be heard. The 911 operator tried to call back, but no one answered. Police did eventually confirm that the body was in fact Wright's and that he had been shot multiple times. The number of shots has not been released, but many reports indicate that Wright was shot at least a dozen times. As the investigation into his death continues, more details will surely become available.
In talking with Hardaway, Calkins and others that knew Lorenzen, a common thread emerged: his love and pride for the city of Memphis. His presence on the basketball court has been well documented, sure, but the attitude at the scene was not one of "we lost an athlete." Rather, it was "we lost a Memphian." Hardaway expounded on Lorenzen's passion for Memphis: "he was a city icon. He did a lot for this city that people didn't know about." Calkins echoed Hardaway: "He was really proud to be a Memphian." The stories about Lorenzen's love for Memphis could fill a book. Grizzlies fans will recall how he beamed with pride when he was selected to model the Memphis Grizzly uniforms at the team's first press conference. Tiger fans will remember how he adored playing for his hometown team and relished the chance to represent Memphis. When Lorenzen was traded to the Grizzlies in 2001, he called it "a dream come true." In the woods behind an apartment complex, however, that dream manifested into a nightmare.
Another common sentiment shared by those that knew Lorenzen was his upbeat, positive outlook on life. His financial and marital troubles were significant: two of his houses were forclosed and he divorced his high school sweetheart last year. More than that, his young daughter Sierra died in 2003, one month before her first birthday. Despite all of those struggles, Lorenzen remained gregarious and outgoing. "No matter what Lorenzen was going through, that didn't make him who he was," said Hardaway. "He always stayed positive." Radio commentators spoke about how the Grizzlies locker room, under coach Hubie Brown especially, was very close knit and that Lorenzen was the emotional leader of those teams. "He was much more than just an athlete," one commentator noted. "He was a truly great person who loved life and loved his family."
If his love for basketball and for Memphis was big, his love for his family surpassed everything else. He had six children and cared for them deeply. This whole investigation was started because Lorenzen hadn't spoken to his kids in days, something that never happened. He spent time with them regularly and always called to talk if he couldn't be with them. A picture he posted on his Twitter page two weeks ago shows him with his kids at a hibachi restaurant, beaming with pride. When with his family, Lorenzen was truly happy.
I first heard the news when I got off work at 5 p.m. A report I heard on the radio indicated that Wright's body was found just across the street from the entrance to TPC Southwind near Hacks Cross and Winchester. I realized that I was very close to that area, so I decided to go to the scene. I didn't know why I decided to go, really. I knew it would be a major news story and I wanted to be there to cover it. But there was more to it than that. I felt I had to go; Lorenzen was such a powerful figure on and off the court and my devotion to the Tigers, Grizzlies and the city of Memphis made the loss that much more devestating. Most of all, however, I wanted to get peoples' reactions. I was deeply saddened by the tragedy and wanted to hear people echo what I felt. Echo they did.
I arrived on the scene at about 5:15, just as a crowd was beginning to swell. Traffic police directed traffic on Hacks Cross since the right lane was blocked by dozens of parked cars. I too parked my car and walked toward the wooded area via Callis Cutoff Road. Dozens of people around me were doing the same. The first person I saw was another Tiger and NBA great, Penny Hardaway. I had always seen him smiling, but he was anything but that yesterday afternoon. I approached him and simply asked for his thoughts. He informed me that he had just learned about the body and was shocked at the news. "There's this unbelievable feeling that you have in your gut," he said, searching for words to explain the inexplicable. "It's shocking and sad at the same time." Although sunglasses hid his eyes, his body language told the whole story. His shoulders slumped, making him seem much shorter than his 6'-7". He was visibly choked up and kept shaking his head, searching for answers for a "senseless tragedy."
After talking with Penny, I sought out Geoff Calkins, a longtime Commercial Appeal columnist. Geoff covered Lorenzen many times throughout his career and couldn't have been more impressed with him. "He was the nicest, most upbeat guy in the locker room," Calkins said. "This is just a terrible tragedy." Like Hardaway, Calkins' body language said even more. His voice was hollow and he wore an abject frown on his sunken face.By 5:45, the crowd at the scene had grown to 250. Yellow police tape and a barricade of squad cars kept the crowd at a 50-yard distance from the woods. 12-15 uniformed officers stood by their cars, but they weren't forced to hold people back from the area where the body was found. Nobody wanted to see. Nobody wanted to believe that Lorenzen Wright was really gone.
It is still too early to tell how exactly Wright went missing and how his body ended up in the woods behind the intersection of Hacks Cross and Callis Cutoff Road. What is known, however, is that a 911 call was placed from Wright's cell phone early in the morning on July 19. The call was dropped, but not before multiple gunshots could be heard. The 911 operator tried to call back, but no one answered. Police did eventually confirm that the body was in fact Wright's and that he had been shot multiple times. The number of shots has not been released, but many reports indicate that Wright was shot at least a dozen times. As the investigation into his death continues, more details will surely become available.
In talking with Hardaway, Calkins and others that knew Lorenzen, a common thread emerged: his love and pride for the city of Memphis. His presence on the basketball court has been well documented, sure, but the attitude at the scene was not one of "we lost an athlete." Rather, it was "we lost a Memphian." Hardaway expounded on Lorenzen's passion for Memphis: "he was a city icon. He did a lot for this city that people didn't know about." Calkins echoed Hardaway: "He was really proud to be a Memphian." The stories about Lorenzen's love for Memphis could fill a book. Grizzlies fans will recall how he beamed with pride when he was selected to model the Memphis Grizzly uniforms at the team's first press conference. Tiger fans will remember how he adored playing for his hometown team and relished the chance to represent Memphis. When Lorenzen was traded to the Grizzlies in 2001, he called it "a dream come true." In the woods behind an apartment complex, however, that dream manifested into a nightmare.
Another common sentiment shared by those that knew Lorenzen was his upbeat, positive outlook on life. His financial and marital troubles were significant: two of his houses were forclosed and he divorced his high school sweetheart last year. More than that, his young daughter Sierra died in 2003, one month before her first birthday. Despite all of those struggles, Lorenzen remained gregarious and outgoing. "No matter what Lorenzen was going through, that didn't make him who he was," said Hardaway. "He always stayed positive." Radio commentators spoke about how the Grizzlies locker room, under coach Hubie Brown especially, was very close knit and that Lorenzen was the emotional leader of those teams. "He was much more than just an athlete," one commentator noted. "He was a truly great person who loved life and loved his family."
If his love for basketball and for Memphis was big, his love for his family surpassed everything else. He had six children and cared for them deeply. This whole investigation was started because Lorenzen hadn't spoken to his kids in days, something that never happened. He spent time with them regularly and always called to talk if he couldn't be with them. A picture he posted on his Twitter page two weeks ago shows him with his kids at a hibachi restaurant, beaming with pride. When with his family, Lorenzen was truly happy.
By 6 o'clock, I had spoken with enough people to get a good sense of the effect Lorenzen's death was having on those gathered at the scene. Who would commit such a heinous crime?, people wondered. Why did this have to happen to Lorenzen? How could such a great person end up like this? Similar questions were asked by everyone and, sadly no one had any answers.
As I was walking back to my car, I called Lafayette Williams, the manager at Chings Hot Wings, a restaurant popular with the Memphis athletic community. I asked him if he had heard the news and he said he had, that it was unbelievably tragic. He said that, although he did not know Loreznen well, he had met him a few times. "He was such a nice guy who cared so much for this city. It's just sad to see him go." He then told a heartbreaking story. "Lorenzen actually came into Chings a couple weeks ago," Lafayette said. "I told him 'Ren, I want to get a picture of you to put on the wall, but I know you're busy and I don't want to bother you. I'll get it next time.' Now, there won't be a next time."
Rest in peace, Lorenzen. You will be missed,
Owen
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Mayo Cut from Team USA
Despite putting up 18 points in Saturday's scrimmage, Grizzlies SG OJ Mayo has been cut from the national Team USA. Head coach Krzyzkewski and USA Basketball director Jerry Colangelo also cut three other players from the squad, Kings PG Tyreke Evans, Bobcats F Gerald Wallace and Wizards C JaVale McGee.
The 15 players remaining, who include Grizzlies SF Rudy Gay, will be trimmed to 12 before the World Championships begin August 26 in Turkey.
Mayo was cut from the team for what team insiders described as a "sluggish" four days of practice.
Owen
The 15 players remaining, who include Grizzlies SF Rudy Gay, will be trimmed to 12 before the World Championships begin August 26 in Turkey.
Mayo was cut from the team for what team insiders described as a "sluggish" four days of practice.
Owen
The Xavier Henry Dispute and Incentives
Below is a link to a great analysis of the Xavier Henry dispute by 3 Shades of Blue's Chip Crain. He discusses the pros and cons of giving rookies an incentive-laden contract, which is what Michael Heisley and the Grizzlies are trying to do with Henry. It's a great read.
http://3sob.com/archives/56-july-2010/1115-whats-the-incentive-
Owen
http://3sob.com/archives/56-july-2010/1115-whats-the-incentive-
Owen
Greivis Vasquez has Ankle Surgery
Memphis Grizzlies rookie point guard Greivis Vasquez had surgery yesterday to remove a bone spur from his right ankle. The Grizzlies expect him to be fully recovered by the time training camp begins in September.
Unfortunately, the surgery will only repair his injured ankle, not his inferior athleticism, poor decision making and slow reaction time. Those deficiencies will never go away.
Obviously I'm not the biggest Greivis fan,
Owen
Unfortunately, the surgery will only repair his injured ankle, not his inferior athleticism, poor decision making and slow reaction time. Those deficiencies will never go away.
Obviously I'm not the biggest Greivis fan,
Owen
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
LeBron: What Could Have Been
Take a trip with me back to May 22, 2003. On that night, the NBA conducted the lottery for the 2003 Draft. As the draft order was slowly revealed, it came down to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Cleveland Cavaliers for the #1 pick. The Grizzlies had a 6.4% chance to win the pick; the Cavs had a 22% to land it. Thanks to a 1997 trade with the Detroit Pistons for the immortal Otis Thorpe, if Memphis was awarded any pick but the #1, the selection would be sent to the Pistons. It was all or nothing for the Grizzlies: we would either get the #1 pick or get shut out of the deepest draft in history.
You know how it ended; Cleveland got the #1 pick and the rights to draft high school phenom LeBron James, who was being hailed as the greatest prospect ever. The Grizzlies got nothing.
It makes me legitimately sad to write these words, but let's see what would have happened if the Grizzlies had landed the #1 pick and drafted LeBron...
2003-2004 Season
First, let's look at how the Grizzlies did that year. Under the coaching of Hubie Brown (in his first full season as Griz coach), the 9-man rotation of Jason Williams (PG), Mike Miller (SG), James Posey (SF), Pau Gasol (PF), Lorenzen Wright (C), Bonzi Wells (Bench-SF) Shane Battier (Bench-F), Stromile Swift (Bench-F) and Earl Watson (Bench-PG) went 50-32 and lost to the San Antonio Spurs in the 1st round of the playoffs. Now add a rookie LeBron James to that mix.
In his rookie season, LeBron averaged 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists and was named Rookie-of-the-Year.
With the Grizzlies, he would have started immediately at SF. Our starting lineup would have been J-Will, Miller, LeBron, Pau and Lorenzen. Two of the best role players of the past 15 years (Posey and Battier) would have come off the bench to provide defense and hustle. Stromile and 3-point specialist Wesley Person would have provided the scoring off the bench, and Earl would have added PG depth. If a LeBron-less Grizzlies won 50 games, I think it's safe to say he would have added at least 7 to that number. So let's be reasonable and say the 2004 Grizzlies would have gone 57-25.
That record would have given us the #3 seed in the playoffs and we would have faced the now-6th seeded Dallas Mavericks. Would our 2004 lineup have bested the Mavs, who lost to the Kings in reality? Since their top 7 were Steve Nash (PG), Marquis Daniels (SG), Michael Finley (SF), Dirk Nowitzki (PF) and Antoine Walker (C), with Josh Howard and Antwan Jamison coming off the bench, I'm going to say we would have lost to the Mavs in 7 games. Nash would have feasted on J-Will, Dirk would have pounded a then-weak Pau and the rest of the Mavs would have been too much for the young, playoff-inexperienced Grizzlies to handle. But at least we would have won a playoff game...
2004 Draft
Since the 2003-2004 "with-LeBron" Grizzlies likely would not have traded Wesley Person and the 2004 #23 pick to the TrailBlazers in exchange for Bonzi Wells, we would have, based on our improved record, likely had the 27th selection in the 2004 Draft. At that point in the draft, Sasha Vujacic would have been the best player available. Let's assume that we would have taken him, since we needed guard help to complement a forward-heavy roster.
2004-2005 Season
First, how did the real 2004-2005 Grizzlies do? The rotation of Gasol, Miller, Wells, Williams, Swift, Battier, Wright, Brian Cardinal and Posey finished the regular season with a 45-37 record. In the playoffs, the 8th-seeded Grizzlies were swept by the Phoenix Suns in the first round.
Again, add sophomore LeBron to the mix. In his 2nd year, James averaged 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists while being named to the All-NBA 2nd Team.
With the Grizzlies, he would have become the clear alpha dog on the team. The lineup from "fantasy-2004" would remain virtually the same in "fantasy-2005." However, LeBron would have come into his own and added at least 12 wins to the "real-2005" Grizzlies. Additionally, rookie Sasha Vujacic would not have added much to the team, since he did not develop into a solid role player until his second season. With Lebron, the Grizzlies would have finished the regular season at 57-25, good for the 5th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Again, the Grizzlies would have faced the Mavericks in the 1st round. This time, however, things would have turned out differently. With Steve Nash gone to Phoenix, the Mavericks would not have enough weapons to hang with LeBron and the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies would have won the series in 5 or 6 games.
In the 2nd round, the Grizzlies would have faced the #1-seeded Phoenix Suns, who won 62 games in 2005. With a lineup of Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the Suns would have been a formidable matchup for the Grizzlies. I believe the Grizzlies-Suns series would have gone to 7 games, but that the 7-Seconds-or-Less-Era Suns would have bested the Grizzlies. Although LeBron&Co. would have put up an epic fight, we wouldn't have been good enough defensively to stop the Suns.
2005 Draft
Based on a "fantasy record" of 57-25, the Grizzlies likely would have picked 27th in the 2005 Draft. At that point, forwards and centers were the best players available. I believe the Grizzlies would have selected a center, since Lorenzen Wright was aging and Brian Cardinal was not a viable option at center. The selection would have likely been David Lee.
2005-2006 Season
First, how did the real 2006 Grizzlies do? A lineup of Chucky Atkins, Shane Battier, Eddie Jones, Pau Gasol and Jake Tsakilidis led the Grizzlies to a 49-33 record. In the playoffs, the Grizzlies were the 5th seed in the West and were swept by the 4th-seeded Mavericks.
Again, add third-year LeBron to the mix. In 2006, LeBron averaged an astounding 31.4 points, 7 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game and garnered All-NBA First Team honors.
The "fantasy-2006" Memphis Grizzlies lineup would have been hard to predict, since we shipped J-Will and Posey to the Heat in exchange for Eddie Jones before the season began. Would we have done that if we had been advancing in the playoffs and had the league's most promising player on our roster?? Probably not.
Our lineup would have been J-Will (PG), Miller (SG), LeBron (SF), Pau (PF) and Lorenzen/David Lee at center. Posey and Battier would have shared the 6th man role and Damon Stoudemire would have provided veteran depth at guard. Rookie David Lee would likely have made slightly more of an impact than rookie Hakim Warrick did, but not much more. Keep in mind: without LeBron on the Griz, Gasol put a 20-9 in '06, Miller averaged 14 and shot 40% from 3 and J-Will had a great year (14 pts and 5 assists) in Miami. Any way you slice it, the 2006 Memphis Grizzlies would have been deadly. The above team, with a truly elite LeBron, would have been at least 15 wins better than in real life. That's right; the 2006 Grizzlies likely would have finished 62-20, finished with a better record than division rival San Antonio and would have been the #1 seed in the West.
In the first round, we would have faced the 8th-seeded Sacramento Kings. We would have obliterated the scrappy Kings, winning in 4 or 5 games.
In the second round, we would have faced the winner of the Denver-Dallas series. Since the real 2006 Mavs reached the finals, let's say they advanced to face the Grizz. In yet another "fantasy" Grizz-Mavs matchup, the "fantasy 2006 Grizzlies" would have likely defeated the Dirk-led Mavericks. Remember, the real 2006 Grizzlies lost to the real 2006 Mavericks by an average of 14 points. You don't think having LeBron (who averaged a 30-8-6 in the playoffs) would have completely flipped those results?? The series would have likely stretched to 6 or 7 games, with the Grizzlies winning due to their ability to bottle up Dallas' comparitively weak supporting cast.
In the Western Conference Finals, the "fantasy" 2006 Grizzlies would have squared off against Tim Duncan and the San Antonio, who would have likely been fresh off a victory over the Phoenix Suns in the Western Semifinals. This Grizzlies-Spurs series would have been an absolute classic. Two of the best players in the game, LeBron and Duncan, against each other plus a supporting cast of Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Mike Miller and Manu Ginobili. Additionally, four of the greatest role players of all time would have been in the series: Battier and Posey for the Grizzlies and Bruce Bowen and "Big Shot" Robert Horry for the Spurs. For a basketball fan, this series would have been heaven.
Since this is a fantasy matchup, and I'm controlling it, let's say that the Grizzlies win in a 7-game classic. This is not an unrealistic fantasy prediction. Although the Spurs would have been the more playoff-seasoned team, the Grizzlies would have had some legit playoff experience under their belts as well. I think the Grizzlies would prevail since Gasol would have been able to bottle up Duncan just enough to allow LeBron to take over the series. Additionally, the "fantasy" 2006 Grizzlies supporting cast would have been better than the 2006 Spurs supporting cast.
Following a victory over the Spurs, the Grizzlies would have advanced to the NBA Finals to face the Dwyane Wade-led Miami Heat. This hypothetical matchup would have been difficult to predict, since a couple of the pieces of Miami's team came in a trade before the season began. However, we can analyze the matchup based on a each team's top 3 players. For Memphis, LeBron, Pau and Miller would have led the way. Wade, Shaq and Antoine Walker would have paced the Heat.
Although the Grizzlies would have fought valiantly against the Heat, I think that the Wade-Shaq combo would have been too much for LeBron & Co. to overcome. Wade had one of the best Finals performances of all time that year and would have scored easily on the Grizzlies. LeBron would not have gone down without a fight, but knowing what we do now about LeBron, there is no way he would have performed well in crunch time. It would have been the duel of the century, LeBron vs. D-Wade, but Wade would have come out on top.
With that, the Grizzlies 2006 season would have ended. We would have been NBA runners-up and would have provided NBA diehards with legendary series against the Mavericks, Spurs and Heat.
The LeBron Era would also have been over. His rookie contract would have been up and he would likely have taken his talents elsewhere. But it's nice (or excruciatingly painful) to think about what might have been. If only our ping pong ball had come up, LeBron would have been a Grizzly, we would have been a deadly team for 3 years (instead of just a decent team) and we would have had a storybook run in the 2006 playoffs. Additionally, LeBron would have brought millions to the city of Memphis and we would now be a legitimate NBA franchise.
Instead, he went to the Cavaliers. The Grizzlies got swept three years in a row and are now the laughingstock of the NBA.
If only that ping pong ball had been different...
Owen
You know how it ended; Cleveland got the #1 pick and the rights to draft high school phenom LeBron James, who was being hailed as the greatest prospect ever. The Grizzlies got nothing.
It makes me legitimately sad to write these words, but let's see what would have happened if the Grizzlies had landed the #1 pick and drafted LeBron...
2003-2004 Season
First, let's look at how the Grizzlies did that year. Under the coaching of Hubie Brown (in his first full season as Griz coach), the 9-man rotation of Jason Williams (PG), Mike Miller (SG), James Posey (SF), Pau Gasol (PF), Lorenzen Wright (C), Bonzi Wells (Bench-SF) Shane Battier (Bench-F), Stromile Swift (Bench-F) and Earl Watson (Bench-PG) went 50-32 and lost to the San Antonio Spurs in the 1st round of the playoffs. Now add a rookie LeBron James to that mix.
In his rookie season, LeBron averaged 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists and was named Rookie-of-the-Year.
With the Grizzlies, he would have started immediately at SF. Our starting lineup would have been J-Will, Miller, LeBron, Pau and Lorenzen. Two of the best role players of the past 15 years (Posey and Battier) would have come off the bench to provide defense and hustle. Stromile and 3-point specialist Wesley Person would have provided the scoring off the bench, and Earl would have added PG depth. If a LeBron-less Grizzlies won 50 games, I think it's safe to say he would have added at least 7 to that number. So let's be reasonable and say the 2004 Grizzlies would have gone 57-25.
That record would have given us the #3 seed in the playoffs and we would have faced the now-6th seeded Dallas Mavericks. Would our 2004 lineup have bested the Mavs, who lost to the Kings in reality? Since their top 7 were Steve Nash (PG), Marquis Daniels (SG), Michael Finley (SF), Dirk Nowitzki (PF) and Antoine Walker (C), with Josh Howard and Antwan Jamison coming off the bench, I'm going to say we would have lost to the Mavs in 7 games. Nash would have feasted on J-Will, Dirk would have pounded a then-weak Pau and the rest of the Mavs would have been too much for the young, playoff-inexperienced Grizzlies to handle. But at least we would have won a playoff game...
2004 Draft
Since the 2003-2004 "with-LeBron" Grizzlies likely would not have traded Wesley Person and the 2004 #23 pick to the TrailBlazers in exchange for Bonzi Wells, we would have, based on our improved record, likely had the 27th selection in the 2004 Draft. At that point in the draft, Sasha Vujacic would have been the best player available. Let's assume that we would have taken him, since we needed guard help to complement a forward-heavy roster.
2004-2005 Season
First, how did the real 2004-2005 Grizzlies do? The rotation of Gasol, Miller, Wells, Williams, Swift, Battier, Wright, Brian Cardinal and Posey finished the regular season with a 45-37 record. In the playoffs, the 8th-seeded Grizzlies were swept by the Phoenix Suns in the first round.
Again, add sophomore LeBron to the mix. In his 2nd year, James averaged 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists while being named to the All-NBA 2nd Team.
With the Grizzlies, he would have become the clear alpha dog on the team. The lineup from "fantasy-2004" would remain virtually the same in "fantasy-2005." However, LeBron would have come into his own and added at least 12 wins to the "real-2005" Grizzlies. Additionally, rookie Sasha Vujacic would not have added much to the team, since he did not develop into a solid role player until his second season. With Lebron, the Grizzlies would have finished the regular season at 57-25, good for the 5th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Again, the Grizzlies would have faced the Mavericks in the 1st round. This time, however, things would have turned out differently. With Steve Nash gone to Phoenix, the Mavericks would not have enough weapons to hang with LeBron and the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies would have won the series in 5 or 6 games.
In the 2nd round, the Grizzlies would have faced the #1-seeded Phoenix Suns, who won 62 games in 2005. With a lineup of Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the Suns would have been a formidable matchup for the Grizzlies. I believe the Grizzlies-Suns series would have gone to 7 games, but that the 7-Seconds-or-Less-Era Suns would have bested the Grizzlies. Although LeBron&Co. would have put up an epic fight, we wouldn't have been good enough defensively to stop the Suns.
2005 Draft
Based on a "fantasy record" of 57-25, the Grizzlies likely would have picked 27th in the 2005 Draft. At that point, forwards and centers were the best players available. I believe the Grizzlies would have selected a center, since Lorenzen Wright was aging and Brian Cardinal was not a viable option at center. The selection would have likely been David Lee.
2005-2006 Season
First, how did the real 2006 Grizzlies do? A lineup of Chucky Atkins, Shane Battier, Eddie Jones, Pau Gasol and Jake Tsakilidis led the Grizzlies to a 49-33 record. In the playoffs, the Grizzlies were the 5th seed in the West and were swept by the 4th-seeded Mavericks.
Again, add third-year LeBron to the mix. In 2006, LeBron averaged an astounding 31.4 points, 7 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game and garnered All-NBA First Team honors.
The "fantasy-2006" Memphis Grizzlies lineup would have been hard to predict, since we shipped J-Will and Posey to the Heat in exchange for Eddie Jones before the season began. Would we have done that if we had been advancing in the playoffs and had the league's most promising player on our roster?? Probably not.
Our lineup would have been J-Will (PG), Miller (SG), LeBron (SF), Pau (PF) and Lorenzen/David Lee at center. Posey and Battier would have shared the 6th man role and Damon Stoudemire would have provided veteran depth at guard. Rookie David Lee would likely have made slightly more of an impact than rookie Hakim Warrick did, but not much more. Keep in mind: without LeBron on the Griz, Gasol put a 20-9 in '06, Miller averaged 14 and shot 40% from 3 and J-Will had a great year (14 pts and 5 assists) in Miami. Any way you slice it, the 2006 Memphis Grizzlies would have been deadly. The above team, with a truly elite LeBron, would have been at least 15 wins better than in real life. That's right; the 2006 Grizzlies likely would have finished 62-20, finished with a better record than division rival San Antonio and would have been the #1 seed in the West.
In the first round, we would have faced the 8th-seeded Sacramento Kings. We would have obliterated the scrappy Kings, winning in 4 or 5 games.
In the second round, we would have faced the winner of the Denver-Dallas series. Since the real 2006 Mavs reached the finals, let's say they advanced to face the Grizz. In yet another "fantasy" Grizz-Mavs matchup, the "fantasy 2006 Grizzlies" would have likely defeated the Dirk-led Mavericks. Remember, the real 2006 Grizzlies lost to the real 2006 Mavericks by an average of 14 points. You don't think having LeBron (who averaged a 30-8-6 in the playoffs) would have completely flipped those results?? The series would have likely stretched to 6 or 7 games, with the Grizzlies winning due to their ability to bottle up Dallas' comparitively weak supporting cast.
In the Western Conference Finals, the "fantasy" 2006 Grizzlies would have squared off against Tim Duncan and the San Antonio, who would have likely been fresh off a victory over the Phoenix Suns in the Western Semifinals. This Grizzlies-Spurs series would have been an absolute classic. Two of the best players in the game, LeBron and Duncan, against each other plus a supporting cast of Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Mike Miller and Manu Ginobili. Additionally, four of the greatest role players of all time would have been in the series: Battier and Posey for the Grizzlies and Bruce Bowen and "Big Shot" Robert Horry for the Spurs. For a basketball fan, this series would have been heaven.
Since this is a fantasy matchup, and I'm controlling it, let's say that the Grizzlies win in a 7-game classic. This is not an unrealistic fantasy prediction. Although the Spurs would have been the more playoff-seasoned team, the Grizzlies would have had some legit playoff experience under their belts as well. I think the Grizzlies would prevail since Gasol would have been able to bottle up Duncan just enough to allow LeBron to take over the series. Additionally, the "fantasy" 2006 Grizzlies supporting cast would have been better than the 2006 Spurs supporting cast.
Following a victory over the Spurs, the Grizzlies would have advanced to the NBA Finals to face the Dwyane Wade-led Miami Heat. This hypothetical matchup would have been difficult to predict, since a couple of the pieces of Miami's team came in a trade before the season began. However, we can analyze the matchup based on a each team's top 3 players. For Memphis, LeBron, Pau and Miller would have led the way. Wade, Shaq and Antoine Walker would have paced the Heat.
Although the Grizzlies would have fought valiantly against the Heat, I think that the Wade-Shaq combo would have been too much for LeBron & Co. to overcome. Wade had one of the best Finals performances of all time that year and would have scored easily on the Grizzlies. LeBron would not have gone down without a fight, but knowing what we do now about LeBron, there is no way he would have performed well in crunch time. It would have been the duel of the century, LeBron vs. D-Wade, but Wade would have come out on top.
With that, the Grizzlies 2006 season would have ended. We would have been NBA runners-up and would have provided NBA diehards with legendary series against the Mavericks, Spurs and Heat.
The LeBron Era would also have been over. His rookie contract would have been up and he would likely have taken his talents elsewhere. But it's nice (or excruciatingly painful) to think about what might have been. If only our ping pong ball had come up, LeBron would have been a Grizzly, we would have been a deadly team for 3 years (instead of just a decent team) and we would have had a storybook run in the 2006 playoffs. Additionally, LeBron would have brought millions to the city of Memphis and we would now be a legitimate NBA franchise.
Instead, he went to the Cavaliers. The Grizzlies got swept three years in a row and are now the laughingstock of the NBA.
If only that ping pong ball had been different...
Owen
Monday, July 26, 2010
GM Chris Wallace on the Xavier Henry Dispute
In an article posted on the NBA blog Fanhouse.com on Sunday, Memphis Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace shed little light on the dark Xavier Henry contract dispute. While reaffirming that the Grizzlies were not prepared to give Henry the full 120% salary immediately, he did say that neither Henry nor his agent Arn Tellem have requested a trade to a team that would offer Henry 120%.
According to Wallace, using performance bonuses in rookie deals (which is what the Grizzlies want to give Henry) is the "best practice" for the Grizzlies organization.
Really, Chris, it is the best practice for the Memphis Grizzlies to be in a bitter contract dispute with a talented rookie who could have an immediate impact on the team? It's the best practice of the organization to treat a draft pick like cattle and alienate what few fans you have left? It's the best practice of the organization to withold $330,000 from a rookie when every other team in the league is signing their picks to the full 120%? You have put your unique spin on every single negative Grizzlies story of the past few years and somehow we fans let you get away with it. Not this time, Chris!
If it is the best practice of the organization to only sign players to 100%, why did you sign both Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carroll (last year's 1st round picks) to max (120%) deals??? I have a hard time believing that you would play hardball with Thabeet and Carroll before ultimately rolling over. My guess is that you signed them to 120% without any dispute at all. The main question I have is why now? Why alienate Xavier when you lovingly welcomed Thabeet and Carroll into the fold? It shouldn't even need to be said, but I'll say it: Xavier Henry is already a better player than Hasheem Thabeet or DeMarre Carroll will ever be. So again I ask: why Xavier?
Owen
According to Wallace, using performance bonuses in rookie deals (which is what the Grizzlies want to give Henry) is the "best practice" for the Grizzlies organization.
Really, Chris, it is the best practice for the Memphis Grizzlies to be in a bitter contract dispute with a talented rookie who could have an immediate impact on the team? It's the best practice of the organization to treat a draft pick like cattle and alienate what few fans you have left? It's the best practice of the organization to withold $330,000 from a rookie when every other team in the league is signing their picks to the full 120%? You have put your unique spin on every single negative Grizzlies story of the past few years and somehow we fans let you get away with it. Not this time, Chris!
If it is the best practice of the organization to only sign players to 100%, why did you sign both Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carroll (last year's 1st round picks) to max (120%) deals??? I have a hard time believing that you would play hardball with Thabeet and Carroll before ultimately rolling over. My guess is that you signed them to 120% without any dispute at all. The main question I have is why now? Why alienate Xavier when you lovingly welcomed Thabeet and Carroll into the fold? It shouldn't even need to be said, but I'll say it: Xavier Henry is already a better player than Hasheem Thabeet or DeMarre Carroll will ever be. So again I ask: why Xavier?
Owen
2 Memphis Grizzlies, 1 Team USA
After a much-hyped Team USA basketball scrimmage, two Grizzlies are hoping they have done enough to garner a spot on the World Championship roster. Although they will log a combined zero NBA minutes this summer, Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo are playing the role of Grizzlies ambassadors very well as they train and try out for a Team USA roster spot.
Although the World Championships will not tip off in Turkey until August 28th, Team USA coach Mike Krzyzewski is doing plenty to evaluate every possible player until the final roster is set at 12 players. Gay and Mayo both received an invitation to the training camp this past season, and both have come into the camp with something to prove. Gay is out to show the world that he is worth a 5-year/$82 million contract and that he can be a top-notch producer for Team USA. Mayo is trying to use a good camp performance to make people forget about his dreadful point guard experiment in the summer league. However, both players are out to prove that the Memphis Grizzlies are a formidable team that has considerable star power of its own.
In the Blue vs. White scrimmage on Saturday night, both players proved beyond a doubt that they do belong on the team. Gay's 23 points (on 7-11 shooting) led the blue team while OJ's 18 points were second on the squad. Although both players were overshadowed by superstar Kevin Durant and his 28 points, they were spectacular in their own right. They were a combined 6-10 from the 3-point line and paced the blue team throughout the game.
Despite their strong efforts, neither player has a roster spot locked up. Coach K and USA Basketball director Jerry Colangelo are set to make four more cuts to the squad today. Indications are that Rudy is safe, but some reporters believe that OJ may be on the bubble. This is because the roster is loaded with athletic, high-scoring shooting guards and OJ may be passed up for a more experienced player.
Regardless of whether or not Rudy and OJ make the team, they have done the Grizzlies proud this week. Way to go, guys!
Once the cuts are announced, count on GrizzLife to update you.
Owen
Although the World Championships will not tip off in Turkey until August 28th, Team USA coach Mike Krzyzewski is doing plenty to evaluate every possible player until the final roster is set at 12 players. Gay and Mayo both received an invitation to the training camp this past season, and both have come into the camp with something to prove. Gay is out to show the world that he is worth a 5-year/$82 million contract and that he can be a top-notch producer for Team USA. Mayo is trying to use a good camp performance to make people forget about his dreadful point guard experiment in the summer league. However, both players are out to prove that the Memphis Grizzlies are a formidable team that has considerable star power of its own.
In the Blue vs. White scrimmage on Saturday night, both players proved beyond a doubt that they do belong on the team. Gay's 23 points (on 7-11 shooting) led the blue team while OJ's 18 points were second on the squad. Although both players were overshadowed by superstar Kevin Durant and his 28 points, they were spectacular in their own right. They were a combined 6-10 from the 3-point line and paced the blue team throughout the game.
Despite their strong efforts, neither player has a roster spot locked up. Coach K and USA Basketball director Jerry Colangelo are set to make four more cuts to the squad today. Indications are that Rudy is safe, but some reporters believe that OJ may be on the bubble. This is because the roster is loaded with athletic, high-scoring shooting guards and OJ may be passed up for a more experienced player.
Regardless of whether or not Rudy and OJ make the team, they have done the Grizzlies proud this week. Way to go, guys!
Once the cuts are announced, count on GrizzLife to update you.
Owen
Grizzlies Tidbits
Hello, again, Grizzlies fans. I hope you all enjoyed the sweltering Memphis heat this weekend and that this post finds you well. You may not be aware, but the weekend was a very active one for the Memphis Grizzlies. I'm not going to do a separate post for each news item, but instead give an overview of the headlines in Grizz-Land.
- The biggest story involving the Memphis Grizzlies right now is the bizarre disappearance of former Grizzly and Memphis Tiger center Lorenzen Wright. He was reported missing on Friday and has not been seen by anyone in over a week. According to his family, he has gone away unannounced before, but never for more than 48 hours. It is a story that was first strange, then scary and is now becoming tragic. Wright has been in financial trouble recently and his Eads home was foreclosed on. He was visiting his family in Collierville last Sunday evening, but by Monday morning had completely vanished. There has been no activity on his credit cards, cell phone or passport. Police have said that there is no foul play involved, but the truth is that no one has any idea what has happened to Wright. One has to pray for a happy ending to a story that is getting worse and worse with each passing day, but that happy ending is looking less and less likely.
- In happier news, the Memphis Grizzlies newest member, guard Tony Allen, was introduced to the media on Friday afternoon. He was gregarious, ebullient, jocund and made a great first impression. My favorite part of the Tony Allen Era happened on Friday afternoon. In an interview with AM 730's Chris Vernon, Allen was legendary. Among other topics, he talked about how he thought the Oklahoma State assistant that recruited him was gay, his favorite highlight from the playoffs(watch it here), his desire to help the Grizzlies win and his recent passion for the game of golf. Listen to the entire interview and I promise you that you will come away a bigger Tony Allen fan. I listened and he is now one of my favorite Grizzlies.
- The Commercial Appeal's Ron Tillery reported that Grizzlies management "is not expected to soften its stance on having 20% of the rookie deals tied to performance bonuses." In other words, if Greivis Vasquez and Xavier Henry are to sign a contract with the team, they will have to accept 100%, instead of the usual 120%, of the rookie salary. Ultimately, I think Vasquez will sign. He is not a hot commodity and had a very poor summer league performance. He seems genuine about playing for the Grizzlies and I think he will take the small pay cut (which for him, the 28th pick, is only about $172,000). Henry is another story and I have written plenty about his contract dispute. Tillery's report only strengthens my belief that Henry will never sign with the team. Look for him to be traded in the next few weeks.
- Grizzlies doctors are concerned about Vasquez's ankle, which they will evaluate this week. Those doctors have not ruled out surgery for the rookie. More is expected to come to light in the next few days.
That's what's happening in Grizz-Land. Keep sticking with GrizzLife for all your Griz needs.
Owen
Friday, July 23, 2010
Dare to Dream Grizzlifers
Below is an article that inspires unrealistic hope and desire. It's a proposed trade for Chris Paul. I'm going to keep dreaming, but at least the article is entertaining.
Grizz Straight
Also, I almost met Greivis Vasqez last night. Almost
Rudy's Contract Pen up for Auction
Yes, that's right Grizzlies fans. For only $150 (as of Friday afternoon) you can be the proud owner of the fountain pen that Rudy Gay used to sign his 5-year/$82 million contract with the Grizzlies: http://auctions.nba.com/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ProductDisplay?prrfnbr=126716951&prmenbr=51136034&aunbr=127063661
*A disclaimer: the link may expire after the auction expires on Friday evening. If so, just imagine a picture of the signing and a close-up of a nice faux-mahogany fountain pen.
"Why would I want to spend $150 on a pen?" you might ask. Well, this is not just any pen. This is the very pen that sealed the Grizzlies fate for the next 5 years and officially saddled us with an under-performing small forward who scores 19 points a game and plays lazy, uninspired defense. There are literally 15 other players in the NBA who fit that description, but only one just signed for $82 million! What's more, he has autographed the pen!! And you can own this pen!!!
Joking aside, I would like to buy this pen and have a vote for what to do with it. Should I A) use it to write a letter to Michael Heisley telling him how horribly he runs his team, B) blow it up, a-la the "Steve Bartman" ball, in hopes that doing so would rid the team of its notoriously bad luck? In my opinion, those are really the only two rational choices.
But who am I kidding; I don't have $150 to spend on a pen. However, I do have enough money to buy the pen that Xavier Henry will never use to never sign a contract with the Grizzlies: http://www.officedepot.com/a/products/181594/Paper-Mate-Ballpoint-Stick-Pens-10/
It's the weekend and I'm feelin' good,
Owen
*A disclaimer: the link may expire after the auction expires on Friday evening. If so, just imagine a picture of the signing and a close-up of a nice faux-mahogany fountain pen.
"Why would I want to spend $150 on a pen?" you might ask. Well, this is not just any pen. This is the very pen that sealed the Grizzlies fate for the next 5 years and officially saddled us with an under-performing small forward who scores 19 points a game and plays lazy, uninspired defense. There are literally 15 other players in the NBA who fit that description, but only one just signed for $82 million! What's more, he has autographed the pen!! And you can own this pen!!!
Joking aside, I would like to buy this pen and have a vote for what to do with it. Should I A) use it to write a letter to Michael Heisley telling him how horribly he runs his team, B) blow it up, a-la the "Steve Bartman" ball, in hopes that doing so would rid the team of its notoriously bad luck? In my opinion, those are really the only two rational choices.But who am I kidding; I don't have $150 to spend on a pen. However, I do have enough money to buy the pen that Xavier Henry will never use to never sign a contract with the Grizzlies: http://www.officedepot.com/a/products/181594/Paper-Mate-Ballpoint-Stick-Pens-10/
It's the weekend and I'm feelin' good,
Owen
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Looking into the Grizzlies Crystal Ball
Four days ago, I wrote about how the Grizzlies #12 draft pick, Xavier Henry, was in a contract dispute with the team over a 20% bonus. Honestly, I expected the dispute to be resolved by now. It isn't. And it may never be. This situation is worse than Grizzlies fans realize and is absolutely devestating to the team. If Henry ever does sign, he will play lazy, uninspired basketball and give new meaning to the word "coasting." And who could blame him? He has been treated like dirt during the entire negotiating process. We have already sent a message to the rest of the league that we treat our players horribly. We were lucky to get Tony Allen this summer, but based on the Xavier negotiations, he may be the last quality free agent we ever get. And if you thought that draft prospects didn't want to work out for the Grizzlies this year, just wait until next year. You ain't seen nothin' yet. I pray that I'm wrong about all this, but let me tell you how I think the next few months will play out in Grizz-land.
First, I do not think Xavier Henry will ever sign with the Memphis Grizzlies. The contract talks are already beyond acrimonious and neither side seems willing to budge. Michael Heisley is not going to give Henry an extra 20% and Arn Tellem is not going to accept anything less for his client. I give it one to two weeks (possibly sooner) before there is a leaked announcement along the lines of "Grizzlies unable to come to terms with Henry." This announcement will bring with it mockery and laughter from the national media, who will run Heisley, Wallace and the Grizzlies through the mud while defending Henry/Tellem. In the Age of LeBron, do you honestly think anyone will side with the owner over the player???
Shortly after that first announcement, the team will announce that it is shopping Henry. More mockery will follow as pundits compare the situation to Steve Franics' refusal to sign with the team in 1999. Offers from teams will come quickly, but none will become official for a few days. My guess is that Henry will go to the Bucks, Hornets, Nuggets or Cavaliers in exchange for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (to fill the backup SF role), Julian Wright (ditto), Anthony Carter (to fill the backup PG role) or Sebastian Telfair (ditto). Honestly, all those deals look pretty good right now, which is sad because I believe Henry will develop into a quality NBA 6th man in the next two to three years.
Those events will bring us to the start of the season, where our reserves will be Tony Allen, Sam Young, Hasheem Thabeet, Darrell Arthur and one of the above-named players. That is not a terrible team, but we would be an injury-to-a-starter away from the 2011 season going down the drain. If that happens, prepare for the worst.
You heard it here first: if the Grizzlies do not make the playoffs in 2010-2011, the team will be sold and moved within the next three years. Here's why: we will have gone 5 years without a playoff appearance. We will have been the laughingstock of the league because of the Xavier Henry debacle. We will be losing marquee players Zach Randolph (his contract will be up), Marc Gasol (ditto) and Mike Conley (ditto) in the summer of 2011 because they would rather retire than re-sign with the miserable Grizzlies. All that will remain will be an overpaid Rudy, a petulant OJ Mayo, Allen, Young, Thabeet and Greivis Vasquez. Heisley will panic, realize how much money he has lost on the team and do everything in his power to sell. Finally, some rich investor will buy the team, who will become either the Las Vegas Dice or the Seattle Grizzlies. And that will be the end of professional basketball in Memphis.
But, wait, I'm not going to end a post like that; who wants to be depressed all day?? Here is a plausible, happier scenario: Henry will sign within the next two weeks when Heisley finally caves in. Training camp will go smoothly and the team will begin the regular season on a high note. In a fine season, the Grizzlies will win around 50 games and will be the 6th seed in the Western Conference playoffs. In the playoffs, we will steal a win or two from the 3rd-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, ultimately losing the series but at least garnering the franchise's only playoff victory. In the summer of 2011, Heisley, Wallace & Co. will somehow shrewdly manage negotiations with and re-sign Gasol, execute a good trade for Conley and use spare cash from Randolph's departure to buy a quality point guard or small forward and everything will be OK.
Which scenario will happen, then: the first or the second? I would like to believe that the second unfolds, but everything I know about the Grizzlies tells me that it will happen the first way. Don't get me wrong, I love the Grizzlies and want only good things for the team. But if we're being honest, that first scenario is much more likely than the second.
Sorry if I made you depressed,
Owen
First, I do not think Xavier Henry will ever sign with the Memphis Grizzlies. The contract talks are already beyond acrimonious and neither side seems willing to budge. Michael Heisley is not going to give Henry an extra 20% and Arn Tellem is not going to accept anything less for his client. I give it one to two weeks (possibly sooner) before there is a leaked announcement along the lines of "Grizzlies unable to come to terms with Henry." This announcement will bring with it mockery and laughter from the national media, who will run Heisley, Wallace and the Grizzlies through the mud while defending Henry/Tellem. In the Age of LeBron, do you honestly think anyone will side with the owner over the player???
Shortly after that first announcement, the team will announce that it is shopping Henry. More mockery will follow as pundits compare the situation to Steve Franics' refusal to sign with the team in 1999. Offers from teams will come quickly, but none will become official for a few days. My guess is that Henry will go to the Bucks, Hornets, Nuggets or Cavaliers in exchange for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (to fill the backup SF role), Julian Wright (ditto), Anthony Carter (to fill the backup PG role) or Sebastian Telfair (ditto). Honestly, all those deals look pretty good right now, which is sad because I believe Henry will develop into a quality NBA 6th man in the next two to three years.
Those events will bring us to the start of the season, where our reserves will be Tony Allen, Sam Young, Hasheem Thabeet, Darrell Arthur and one of the above-named players. That is not a terrible team, but we would be an injury-to-a-starter away from the 2011 season going down the drain. If that happens, prepare for the worst.
You heard it here first: if the Grizzlies do not make the playoffs in 2010-2011, the team will be sold and moved within the next three years. Here's why: we will have gone 5 years without a playoff appearance. We will have been the laughingstock of the league because of the Xavier Henry debacle. We will be losing marquee players Zach Randolph (his contract will be up), Marc Gasol (ditto) and Mike Conley (ditto) in the summer of 2011 because they would rather retire than re-sign with the miserable Grizzlies. All that will remain will be an overpaid Rudy, a petulant OJ Mayo, Allen, Young, Thabeet and Greivis Vasquez. Heisley will panic, realize how much money he has lost on the team and do everything in his power to sell. Finally, some rich investor will buy the team, who will become either the Las Vegas Dice or the Seattle Grizzlies. And that will be the end of professional basketball in Memphis.
But, wait, I'm not going to end a post like that; who wants to be depressed all day?? Here is a plausible, happier scenario: Henry will sign within the next two weeks when Heisley finally caves in. Training camp will go smoothly and the team will begin the regular season on a high note. In a fine season, the Grizzlies will win around 50 games and will be the 6th seed in the Western Conference playoffs. In the playoffs, we will steal a win or two from the 3rd-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, ultimately losing the series but at least garnering the franchise's only playoff victory. In the summer of 2011, Heisley, Wallace & Co. will somehow shrewdly manage negotiations with and re-sign Gasol, execute a good trade for Conley and use spare cash from Randolph's departure to buy a quality point guard or small forward and everything will be OK.
Which scenario will happen, then: the first or the second? I would like to believe that the second unfolds, but everything I know about the Grizzlies tells me that it will happen the first way. Don't get me wrong, I love the Grizzlies and want only good things for the team. But if we're being honest, that first scenario is much more likely than the second.
Sorry if I made you depressed,
Owen
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