Rudy Re-signs

Article by John Hollinger on ESPN Insider. I think it's the best I've read about the Rudy signing.

July 1: Gay rejoins Grizzlies for $80 million

So the first of the big free-agent dominoes has fallen, and surprisingly it's Memphis' Rudy Gay Even more surprising, he's staying a Grizzly. With a five-year, maximum deal worth more than $80 million that no suitor could match, the Grizzlies comfortably won the rights to retain Gay's services.

Gay's return comes as a surprise because of the penny-pinching ways of Memphis owner Michael Heisley, but there's always been a madness to his method. This is the same guy who traded Pau Gasol in a pure salary dump and yet has paid the same money to visibly inferior players in Zach Randolph and now Gay. In this instance, keeping Gay now rather than matching another offer prevented the likely outcome of having to match a heavily front-loaded offer sheet from another club for similar overall dollars.

Nonetheless, Gay is now grossly overpaid. No other Grizzly besides Randolph will make more than $5 million this year, but Gay is on the books for more than double that despite the fact that he's probably only the team's third-best player. While he's an impressive scorer, his game is completely one-dimensional and he's shown no improvement whatsoever in the past two seasons.

It's certainly possible he could do more -- Gay is only 23 and has enviable physical talents that could allow him to improve his game in several directions. But the thing he seems to need most is a change of scenery and a winning environment where more is demanded from him. That's the one thing he won't be getting for the next half-decade.

For Memphis it's a mistake contract, but it could have been worse. The Grizzlies will still be far below the cap in 2011 when Zach Randolph and the long-departed Marko Jaric come off the books, so Gay's deal needn't be a cap-killer even with Memphis' tight budget. Additionally, he's young enough that he should still be tradable if the Griz decide to shift gears in future years.

The fact Memphis kept Gay also lends a clue to one other oddity -- the decision not to make a qualifying offer to Ronnie Brewer (Warning: Conjecture coming.) The Grizzlies drafted Xavier Henry and Greivis Vasquez in the first round; combined with keeping Gay, it means their roster is already at 12 players. Memphis will almost certainly keep the minimum 13, which means the Grizzlies have one more spot to fill ... which they could have filled by making a qualifying offer to Brewer.

However, by far the more palatable option for Memphis would be signing a frontcourt player with its midlevel exception (or a portion thereof). Obviously, it's going to be tough to get a quality player to come to Memphis without a bowl-me-over offer, and the Grizzlies aren't going to be making one.

But given the glaring need, it at least helps to keep the option open. Memphis needs a big body a lot more than it needs another wing player right now, and my guess is that Heisley will pick only one.

Grizzlies Sign Gay to 5-year/$82 million Contract

Multiple sources are indicating that the Grizzlies have reached an agreement with small forward Rudy Gay on a 5-year/$82 million contract. This move comes as a surprise, since Gay was prepared to meet with multiple teams regarding a contract. According to Memphis management, the decision was made to re-sign Gay before another team could make him a bigger offer, thereby committing the team to even more money.

More details and analysis to come,
Owen

More Rudy Gay Thoughts

With the entire basketball universe losing its collective head over the free agency period, it feels good to take a few minutes off from the insanity and think about something else. Unfortunately, I can't do that. This free agency period means too much to the NBA (and the Grizzlies) and I couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I didn't digest every morsel of news and rumor.

As far as the Grizzlies are concerned, Rudy Gay's negotiations with the Grizzlies and other teams are front page news. While scouring the Internet for news and analyzing whether or not keeping Rudy Gay would be a good idea (I'll publish my theories on that in a couple days), I have read many different sports blogs trying to get more information on Rudy and the Griz. Then I remembered a GrizzLife post from February that goes a long way in explaining things. The following is an edited-for-space version of Jumpshot Griesbeck's post "Why Rudy Gay will play for the Washington Wizards next season, and why I'm okay with it:"
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It is no secret that this summer's free agent market is the biggest in NBA history. Now, obviously, this summer is really about LeBron and everyone else. But that "everyone else" is pretty good. Some teams, as much as they'd like to think they have a chance at one of the superstars, just don't...So what are those teams going to do? Most people think that these teams are going to get desperate and offer a huge contract to a second-tier player.

Now, let's talk about the Grizzlies and Rudy Gay. Gay is a restricted free agent, meaning that, at the end of the day, if the Grizzlies want Gay to stay in Memphis, they can have their way. But the cards point toward another outcome. Michael Heisley has made it very clear that he is not looking to spend alot of money. He is not going to go out and sign free agents that will put the Grizzlies near the NBA's highest payrolls, and then watch the team get swept in three straight playoff series, again. And with the recent signing of Ronnie Brewer, I don't care how much Heisley and Wallace deny it...it does not look like Rudy Gay will be in Memphis next season.

Fearless prediction: Rudy Gay will play for the Wizards next season. Why I am okay with it: Right now, the Grizzlies have 5 legitimate players--players that other teams might actually want. Those players are Gasol, Mayo, Randolph, Gay, and Brewer. Of those five, I believe Rudy Gay is the most dispensable, and I will tell you why.

Reason #1: There are other Rudy Gays in the NBA. Athletic 6-8 swing men aren't exactly going out of style. In contrast, Marc Gasols are hard to find.

Reason #2: (Get ready...) Rudy Gay is a lackluster defender. This is a shock to...no one. Did you see Rudy's defense on the Kobe game-winner the other night? He handled that screen for Kobe about as well as JP handles cars in 'Angels in the Outfield'.

[Note: Since Ronnie Brewer is no longer a restricted free agent, take the following points with a grain of salt. The Grizzlies can still sign Brewer, of course; he is just not a restricted free agent.]

Reason #3: Not re-signing Rudy Gay means the Grizzlies will keep Ronnie Brewer. Unfortunately, Ronnie was hurt in his Memphis debut last week. But in the long run, I think that injury will work out for good. Ronnie gets less time to prove himself, and less time to tempt possible suitors into offering him a big deal this summer. It makes it easier for Memphis to re-sign him, and, like Gay, he is restricted (if we want him, we can have him).

Reason #4: Ronnie Brewer works into the Grizzlies future better than Rudy Gay. He is still young, he brings local interest, and he is one of the better perimeter defenders in the NBA. (If Brewer is on Kobe the other night, that shot might not go in...) At 6-7, Brewer is versatile, can play the 2 or the 3, and gives the Grizzlies the option to move O.J. to the point and put Ronnie at the 2. He can slash, and he is not a black hole. He is not a franchise player, but he doesn't have to be paid like one either.

Reason #5: Keeping Brewer, and not Gay, gives the Grizzlies more space to re-sign Randolph and O.J. If you think that this summer is critical for the Grizzlies, think about the summer after. Gasol, Randolph, and Mayo are all free-agents--the three most valuable assets in our franchise right now. To think that 1 or 2 of these could be gone is scary...

So there you have it. Gay brings local flare to the East Coast, and Brewer brings it to the Mid-South. Washington gets their scorer, Memphis gets some flexibility.Down the road, a legitimate-point-guard-not-named-Michael Conley, O.J. Mayo, Ronnie Brewer, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol sounds like a pretty good starting five to me.
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Like I said, Griesbeck's analysis isn't perfect. The Ronnie Brewer situation has changed drastically since February. But his thoughts about Rudy Gay still hold a lot of water. Should we re-sign Gay? My answer right now is maybe. In a few days, I'll post my complete thoughts.

I've been thinking a lot of Gay thoughts lately,
Owen

T-Wolves to Meet with Gay Tonight

Accroding to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, the Minnesota Timberwolves have contacted Memphis small forward Rudy Gay and will have a face-to-face meeting with him tonight. This information comes from "sources close to the situation." Remember that no contracts can be signed until July 8 and that the Grizzlies have the option of matching whatever contract is made to Gay.

Look for an update on this meeting tomorrow,
Owen

Griz Extend Qualifying Offer to Gay (But not Brewer)

On the eve of the biggest free agency period in NBA history, the Memphis Grizzlies chose to extend a $4 million qualifying offer to small forward Rudy Gay, officially making him a restricted free agent. The Grizzlies now have the right of first refusal in his contract negotiations. However, the team did not extend an offer to guard/forward Ronnie Brewer. He is now an unrestricted free agent. Why didn't we make Brewer an offer? What does all this mean? What happens now? Hold you horses, Griz fans, we're getting there.

Let's talk about Brewer first. Do you remember in February when the Griz traded a 2011 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz ion exchange for Brewer? Do you remeber GM Chris Wallace talking about how Brewer was "a winning basketball player" and would be a great addition to the team? Do you remember how, thanks to a groin tear, Brewer appeared in just 8 games for the Grizzlies? If you remember all of those things, then you will realize how ludicrous it is that the Grizzlies did not make Brewer a restricted free agent. If he does not re-sign with the team, we will have traded a first round draft pick for 80 minutes, 3-13 shooting and 8 points. Wow. Not even the Pau Gasol trade was that lopsided. Now, I know it is no fault of the Grizzlies that Brewer got injured. But the fact that the team is now kicking him to the curb is astounding. Heisley, you of all people should know that you'd want to get some sort of return on your investment. But this? I didn't even think you were capable. The funniest part of the whole thing is that the Grizzlies insist that they will try to re-sign Brewer. Why in the world would he want to come back to a team where he was relegated to a backup role, got injured and watched his new team collapse at the end of the year? No one can blame you if you head for greener pastures, Ronnie.

How, then, does this decision affect the re-signing of Rudy Gay? According to Heisley and Wallace, it means that the Grizzlies will now have even more money to match any offer Gay might receive. For the past 6 months, Michael Heisley has been saying to anyone that will listen that re-signing Gay is the team's number one goal this offseason. For the first time, I actually believe Heisley on this. It would be too big a hit on his pride to let Rudy walk after declaring for so long that he would remain a Grizzly. He isn't going to want to match the big contract offer Rudy will receive (likely from the Minnesota Timberwolves), but he really isn't going to have a choice. If Rudy were to leave Memphis, the team would lose more than just its star player. Fans would disown the team and the city would lose arguably its most popular player. Like it or not, Rudy has become the face of the franchise. Losing him would be a huge hit.

There is one situation in which I would be OK with Rudy leaving, however, and that is if a team offers him a near-max contract of something in the area of 5 years/$65 million. Sorry, Rudy, but that's just too much to pay. We have to think about the long term here and if we sign you to that huge contract, that cripples us in negotiating with Zach Randolph, OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in the next few years. Numerous NBA teams have been ruined because they gave a max contract to a player who wasn't worth it. I don't want that to be the Grizzlies. If a team did offer Gay $60-70 million, I would be fine with us letting him go and pursuing another small forward and building around our other four starters.

So, now that free agency has begun, what do we know? First, and most importantly, we know that the Grizzlies brass will do everything they can to re-sign Rudy Gay. Second, we know that Ronnie Brewer's days in Memphis are likely over. Third, we know that, with Brewer gone, the pressure on Xavier Henry, Sam Young and Darrell Arthur to perform just got much bigger.

Where do we go from here? Well, teams can begin talking to Gay today about signing with them. There are no official plans for him to meet with any team, but talks with the T-Wolves appear likely. Also, any team that loses the LeBron/Bosh/Wade sweepstakes (Knicks, Nets, Clippers and Cavaliers, possibly) might target Gay as a Plan B. Contracts cannot be signed until July 8, so it will be at least a week before anything is made official. If a team does make an offer to Gay, the Grizzlies will have the opportunity to match the deal. If they do, Gay remains a Grizzly. If not, it's bye bye Rudy.

Stay with GrizzLife for updates,
Owen