The Draft: T-Minus 6 Days

Hello, again, Grizzlies fans. I hope this post finds you well. With an NBA Finals Game 7 and the NBA Draft in the same 7-day span, I sure am feeling good. As a Grizzlies fan, however, my focus is more on the Draft than the playoffs. Will we trade all (or any) of our picks? If we keep the 12th pick, who will we take? Will potential first-rounders keep snubbing our workouts (see: Hayward, Gordon; Bledsoe, Eric; George, Paul; Udoh, Ekpe; Sanders, Larry)? Thanks to GrizzLife, however, you have answers to those questions. Are they the right answers? Who knows...



Will we trade our picks?



For weeks, basketball insiders have quietly assumed that the Grizzlies would likely keep the 12th pick and package the 25th and 28th picks in a deal. Sources close to the team have indicated, however, that if the Grizzlies front office finds a player they truly like at any of those positions, they will keep the pick. I agree.



Owner Michael Heisley and GM Chris Wallace have indicated that the 12th pick would be used to draft either an athletic forward or a scoring guard. With the 25th and 28th picks, the Grizzlies are searching for a 1) backup to point guard Mike Conley and 2) a wildcard player that team executives like.



Bottom line: I bet we keep the 12th pick and trade either the 25th or 28th pick. Who would we package in that trade? That's difficult to say, but Carroll or Thabeet are certainly options. This morning, Commercial Appeal reporter Ronald Tillery reported that the Grizzlies are in talks with the New Orleans Hornets about a possible trade involving Hornets' point guards Chris Paul or Darren Collison. It is not clear who or what the Grizzlies would give up to get these players, but I would be thrilled with either one.



If we keep the 12th pick, who will we take?



All the evidence points to the Grizzlies going after an athletic forward or an electrifying guard with the 12th overall pick. Regarding my previous post, the Grizzlies are unlikely to take Baylor's Ekpe Udoh. He snubbed the Grizzlies in a June 16th workout and is falling on many draft boards. Additionally, Nevada's Luke Babbit, once thought to be the frontrunner for the 12th pick, is not so anymore. A colleague who attended Babbit's workout for the Grizzlies said that he seemed lazy and disinterested. Additionally, he was the first one in the group to run out gas. However, that will likely not deter the Grizzlies from taking him, since he compiled an outstanding season for Nevada.



That said, who is on the Grizzlies' radar now? Two shooting guards who worked out Sunday, Kansas' Xavier Henry and Oklahoma State's James Anderson, were very impressive in their workouts and Memphis management was excited about both of them. "We were pleased with what these guys did," said Tony Barone, director of player personell.

And although they have snubbed the Grizzlies in recent workouts, Gordon Hayward and Paul George are thought to be good fits for the Grizzlies at the small forward position. Despite his unwillingness to work out for the team last year, Hasheem Thabeet was still selected by the Grizzlies. The lesson, as always, with the Grizzlies: don't count anything out.

Will potential first-rounders keep snubbing the Grizzlies in workouts?

After several private workout sessions, the number of players refusing to work out for the Grizzlies is growing: Gordon Hayward, Eric Bledsoe, Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders and Avery Bradley have all pulled out of workouts for various reasons. Hayward cited a staunch refusal to play for the team while Bledsoe, Udoh and Sanders provided weak "medical" excuses for their absence. Only Bradley seems to have a legitimate ailment (an ankle injury).

With only one workout remaining before Thursday's draft, all indications are that those players will participate. Kentucky's Patrick Patterson (who is a viable option at the #12 spot), West Virginia's Devan Ebanks and Ole Miss' Terrico White (who happens to hail from Memphis) are the players featured in Sunday's workout.

Hopefully they do participate and the Grizzlies will be able to make a more informed decision about their three picks. This is an important draft for a young, rebuilding team and it would be devestating if we blew it.

Here's hoping we don't,
Owen

The Draft: A Letter to Michael Heisley

To: Michael Heisley
From: Owen Mercer
CC: Chris Wallace

Dear Michael,

You don't know me. I'm just a common man with an uncommon passion for the Memphis Grizzlies. No, I'm not a season ticket holder and no, I don't buy merchandise in the Grizz Den (or whatever the team store is called). You won't make much money off of me. I only come to games when I'm home from college and then only buy the Sonic Saver tickets.

What I lack in revenue, I make up for in passion. I come to every game I can, I follow the team colsely and engage in heated debates with friends about the Grizzlies and the NBA. To put it bluntly, being a Grizzlies fan has been a struggle. The elation of three straight playoff appearances was quashed by our failing to win a single postseason game. The next three seasons were downright miserable. Last season renewed hope within me. That we can be a successful franchise; that we can be a marketbale team; basically, that we can matter in the NBA. Now it is time to improve on the strides made last season.

That is why I am writing you; to discuss the NBA Draft. As you (hopefully) know, the Memphis Grizzlies are owners of the 12th, 25th and 28th overall picks in this year's draft. You have often said that the draft is one of the best ways to improve the team. Well, Michael, now is the time to put your money where your mouth is. I know that will be difficult for you, to put your money anywhere. You're about as free-spending as an 85-year-old on a fixed income and seem to look everywhere to cut spending. I say that to say this: please don't trade the picks for overpriced players just to save a few bucks. The payroll for the 2011 season is already $10 million less than 2010. There is value to be had in the draft.

After last season, I see two main areas that we need to improve: bench production and defense. With three first round picks, surely we can adequately address those needs. Also, Rudy Gay and Ronnie Brewer may not be around next season (althought that's another story) and we need to consider that when drafting.

Just because we don't own a high (aka top-10) pick doesn't mean we can't have a successful draft. Recently, a large number of NBA stars have been drafted later in the first round: Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, David West amd Gerald Wallace to name a few. Does this mean we will get players like these? Not necessarily. But it does mean that we can. This may not be the deepest draft in history, but there are always diamonds in the rough waiting to be uncovered. Based on draft projections, what players might be around at 12, 26 and 28? At #12, I think Ekpe Udoh or Luke Babbit would be great selections.

Udoh is a 6'10" 237-lb. power forward who just completed his junior season at Baylor. Size-wise, he is very similar to Kevin Durant (just add 1" of height, 1/2" of wingspan and 7 pounds). Although he is nowhere close to elite as an offensive player, he has the makings of a star on the defensive end. Last season, he averaged an astounding 3.9 blocks per game. In watching film of him, you notice that he uses his length extremely well and keeps his blocked shots in play.

Additionally, he rebounds extremely well (9.8 per game), something that would fit well with the Grizz, who were one of the NBA's best rebounding clubs last season. Udoh uses his quickness to gain an edge on the defensive end, where he would make an immediate impact for the team.

His quickness also aids his otherwise-weak offensive game. He is awkward and indecisive in the post and lacks a consistent repitoire of moves. That noted, he has vastly improved his offense throughout the past few seasons and emerged as a legitimate scoring threat for Baylor (14 points per game). It is likely that he will continue his offensive development in the NBA.

Overall, Udoh is a lanky, above-average defender whose offensive misgivings will greatly improve in the NBA. Where would he fit on the Grizzlies? He would replace Captain Inept (Hasheem Thabeet) and his sidekick Lieutenant Useless (DeMarre Carroll) as a spell for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and would provide a positive spark off the bench. If he's around at #12, I would applaud if we took him.

If Udoh doesn't excite you, how about Luke Babbit at #12? The 6'9", 218-lb. forward from Nevada would be a great pick as well. Simply, he is one of the best scorers in the draft. Last season, he averaged 22.1 points per game (8th in the nation) while shooting 43% from downtown and 91% from the charity stripe (5th in the nation). Besides a great jump shot, he has also developed a smooth post game. Thanks to a 37.5" vertical, he's not afraid to throw down a dunk either.

Moreover, he averaged an impressive 8.9 rebounds per game last season. He uses high energy to gain the rebounding edge over bigger or faster opponents. That energy makes him effective at both ends of the floor and he would definitely bring added tempo to the Grizzlies.

What's wrong with him? He is a defensive liability due to his lack of quickness and strength. When guarding quicker small forwards, he would likely get beaten more often than not. Additionally, he may not do well down low offensively when guarded by big 7-footers.

Overall, though, he would be a phenomenal pick. His scoring, energy and high basketball IQ make him a fun player to watch and Grizzlies fans would likely take to him quickly. If Rudy Gay or Ronnie Brewer were to leave Memphis, I believe he could jump into the starting rotation right away.

Now, Michael, don't forget about our 25th and 28th picks. I know you'll probably end up trading them to save yourself some money, though. Although there is no way to tell who will be around late in the first round, here are four solid players who might be: Damion James, Elliott Williams, Armon Johnson and Quincy Pondexter.

James is a 6'7", 227-lb. small forward who just finished a stellar 4-year career at Texas. He is a top-of-the-charts athlete (3rd in the combine in the lane agility drill, 7th in the combine in the 3/4 court sprint) and uses that athleticism to guard virtually any opponent he is matched up against. Did I mention that he is one of the best rebounders in the draft? He is the Big 12's all-time leading rebounder and uses his 7-foot wingspan and 35" vertical jump to reach any ball that comes near him. His negatives are poor ball-handling, the lack of a consistent jump shot, horrible free throw shooting (63% for his career) and age (he'll turn 23 in October). However, if available, his athleticism and marked offensive improvement through college (18 points per game in 2010) may make him too sweet to pass up, especially if Rudy heads out of town.

Elliott Williams is another solid option at either #25 or #28. The 6'4", 180-lb. shooting guard from Memphis and Duke is long, athletic and quick. Offensively, the lefty is extremely effective in traffic close to the basket. He is better-suited for a shooting guard, but could run the point in a pinch. However, he is not a very good jump shooter, 3-point shooter or free throw shooter. Basically, his offensive game is limited when he's away from the basket. Defensively, his athleticism, length and quickness make him an above-average against both smaller and bigger opponents. Additionally, he has a high basketball IQ and possesses loads of potential (especially if he develops a consistent jump shot).

If he is around, I would be happy if you took Armon Johnson. As Babbit's teammate at Nevada, the 6'3" point guard averaged 15.7 points and 5.6 assists per game. He is extremely athletic and has great size for a point guard. He is not exactly a pass-first point guard, but has greatly improved at creating shots for teammates. He is a solid finisher and has a decent jumper. Picking him would also address our need at the point guard position. Mike Conley has been good but seems to leave something to be desired and Jamaal Tinsley is getting old. Johnson's drawbacks are a lack of point guard-specific skills (which is what the Grizzlies need), poor leadership skills, prone to turnovers and a shaky 3-point shot. He has potential, though, and would be a good late-1st round pick.

Finally, another good late-1st round choice would be Quincy Pondexter, a 6'7", 215 lb. small forward from Washington. He is an impressive athlete and is very strong for his size. His offensive game, which improved steadily throughout his collegiate career, consists mostly of slashing to the basket and finishing inside. He uses above average quickness and explosiveness to make up for below average ball-handling skills. His mid-range game is effective but he has an inconsistent 3-point shot. His free throw shooting (84%) is solid, which is good considering how often he gets to the line. (He finished 24th in the country last season with 178 made free throws). Defensively, he is very good and exhibits tremendous hustle in both guarding opponents and rebounding. He could effectively guard a smaller guard or a bigger forward. Overall, he is an effective scorer (19.3 points per game), practices and plays hard, defends well and would inject athleticism into the Grizzlies roster. As with James, he would also be good Rudy Gay insurance.

Well, Michael, there's my advice. Take it or leave it (you'll probably leave it). I have confidence in our scouts' ability to evaluate players and I'm sure we'll be well prepared come June 24th. Wait...what's that?? We don't have scouts?? Oh yeah, that's right. You fired them last summer. I know you're always looking to save a buck, but when we are the only team in the NBA without full-time scouts, something's wrong. It's not an accident that the NBA's playoff teams all employ several scouts.

Do you truly want to be part of a playoff team? Yes? Then start acting like it. Hire a few scouts, execute a smart draft and don't be afraid to be agressive in this offseason's negotiations. If we start winning consistently, fans will come. And those fans will bring money.

Sincerely,
Owen Mercer

The Zach Randolph Drug Story, Day 2

Less than 24 hours after an Indianapolis news station reported that Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph was implicated in a recent drug bust, Randolph, and Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace, responded with official statements claiming innocence and a commitment to the Memphis community. These two statements follow reports that the initial story as reported last night was not entirely true.

In a statement released to the media Thursday afternoon, Randolph claimed that he "was not involved in any of the allegations" brought forth by Channel 6 News in Indianapolis. Furthermore, he noted that the "IMPD made an official statement around 6p EST stating that I am not a suspect in any current narcotics investigation." Throughout the statement, Randolph emphasized that he has learned lessons from his past mistakes and has worked hard to rebuild his public image. The full statement can be viewed here.

Zach, I truly do want to believe you. I believe that you have worked hard to repair your once-tarnished image and I believe that you fully demonstrated that commitment throughout the past season. Do I believe you? Mostly. I doubt that you had anything to do with drug dealing or the financing of drug dealing. That said, I believe that you have friends with cars and houses in the past. When those friends get caught up in illegal activity, you are going to be questioned, regardless of whether or not you were involved.

In a bland, by-the-books statement, Memphis GM Chris Wallace declined to comment on the ongoing investigation but stressed that Randolph has been a valuable contributor to the team and to the community. His statement can be viewed here.

What does all of this mean? It sounds like the initial allegations were way too broad and that Randolph legitimately was not involved in any illegal activity. Did he know of any illegal activity? That remains to be seen. For now, Randolph is essentially in the clear and can get back to focusing on basketball. Good.

Stay tuned to GrizzLife,

Owen

Zach Randolph Implicated In Indy Drug Bust

Well, you can store this one under your "I should have seen this one coming" file, Grizzlies fans. Although official details are still hazy, here is the story so far. (All of this information comes from Jack Reinhart of Channel 6 News in Indianapolis.)

Two weeks ago, Indianapolis police were performing a stake out on a suspected drug house. After observing a Cadillac Escalade leaving the residence, police pulled the SUV over. The driver of the vehicle was Arthur Boyd, 32. Upon searching the car, police found marijuana and ammunition stored inside hidden compartments. Guess who the car was registered to? That's right, All-Star power forward Zach Randolph of the Memphis Grizzlies, who has a long history of trouble with the law.

Today, apparently, police raided a storage facility where Randolph had rented four storage units. In two of those units, police found narcotics. I all four units, police found more cars that were also outfitted with secret storage compartments.

Randolph's attorney, John Thompkins, asserts that Randolph is not involved in any drug activity. According to "a trusted police informant," however, Randolph is a "major" marijuana supplier in Indianapolis. Also according to the informant, Randolph provides cars and houses for certain individuals, including Boyd.

As of this writing, Randolph has not been arrested or charged with a crime. "Looking at his ownership of the vehicles, he should be aware of who's driving them and possessing illegal narcotics in them," said Lt. Jeff Duhamell of the Indianapolis Police Department. "That in and of itself brings up questions."

Over the next few days, this story will certainly clear up and hopefully, facts will become available. If Randolph is dismissed as a suspect, great. Let's move on and pretend like nothing ever happened. But these are serious allegations and will likely not go away easily. An arrest or trial here would be a crushing blow for Randolph, who is coming off a career season and had seemingly turned the corner regarding his behavior.

But I don't want to speculate or jump to conclusions. This investigation could be much ado about nothing. However, given Randolph's track record, it may prove to be more serious. Here's hoping it's the former.

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to release a statement tomorrow in support of Randolph, and we will provide a copy of that statement as soon as it becomes available. As always, stick with GrizzLife for all your Grizzlies needs.

I support you Zach!!,

Owen

Draft Rater

This is some of Chad Ford's Insider article. It ranks players based on The Draft Rater, which produces a projection of a player's "peak" PER in Years 4-5, something that might not be apparent from looking at the rather underwhelming numbers next to each name. The Draft Rater has yet to miss a lottery pick who became an All-Star in its top 12 collegians list.

Chad Ford has been saying for a long time that the Grizzlies love Luke Babbitt. Babbitt's draft status has been rising as of late and The Draft Rater has him at #7. Below is the list of top Draft Rater players in the draft

Rank	Player	Team	Projected PER
1	DeMarcus Cousins	Kentucky	16.14
2.	Evan Turner	Ohio State	14.79
3.	John Wall	Kentucky	14.68
4.	Greg Monroe	Georgetown	14.39
5.	Derrick Favors	Georgia Tech	13.98
6.	Xavier Henry	Kansas	13.52
7.	Luke Babbitt	Nevada	13.35
8.	Al-Farouq Aminu	Wake Forest	13.30
9.	Wes Johnson	Syracuse	13.03
10.	Greivis Vasquez	Maryland	12.97
11.	Sylven Landesberg	Virginia	12.52
12.	Omar Samhan

Here's a highlight film from his college career

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0_PCqoB0aI

Let's just hope the Grizz don't draft a project or on position. Let's draft ability and see what happens.

Go Grizz!