Grizzlies, Zach Randolph Talk Extension

Late last week, multiple news outlets reported that the Memphis Grizzlies are discussing a multi-year contract extension with power forward Zach Randolph. Randolph, who is coming off an All-Star season in which he averaged 20.8 points and 11.7 rebounds, is set to make $17.3 million this season. This season will be the second of the 2-year contract he signed with the team last summer.

Last month, the Grizzlies refused to swap Randolph for Timberwolves forward Al Jefferson. Furthermore, the team then insisted that Randolph is not on the trading block. The 2-year deal was expected to be all the Grizzlies would get from Randolph, who will be a free agent at the end of next season. However, GM Chris Wallace has confirmed that talks are ongoing between the team and Randolph. The length of the extension is reportedly between four and five years.

Randolph's reasons for re-signing with the team are easy to discern. If he signs a deal now, he can lock himself into guaranteed money for a few years and will not have to negotiate a deal under the new collective bargaining agreement, which will be in place next summer. He knows that his value will never be higher than it is right now and he wants to get paid right now. I get it.

The Grizzlies' reasons for a new contract for Randolph are also simple. In my opinion, management has fallen in love with a player who reinvented himself this past season and proved that he can be a valuable contributor for the team. Wallace and Heisley have let an All-Star appearance, 20 points and 11 boards cloud their judgment. They want to believe that Randolph will continue to produce at that high level for the next five years and they are willing to pay him millions to find out.

But don't despair, Grizzlies, fans; I'm here to sort everything out. I am going to tell you why re-signing Zach Randolph to a four or five-year extension is just about the worst thing the Grizzlies can do right now.

The simple reason that it is a horrible idea to sign Randolph right now is age. He just turned 29, has already logged about 600 NBA game and is entering his 10th season. That trifecta should be a giant red flag for the Grizzlies, but it isn't. So i'll be blunt: history has proven that NBA big men age rapidly once they hit 30/their 10th season. Their stats plummet and they become a waste of space on a team's bench. The problem is, teams love to pay big money to a veteran big man because they are blinded by the stats the player has put up for the past several seasons.

Don't believe me? Let me show you the stats. For his career, Zach Randolph has averaged 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds. If you throw out his first two seasons (in which he was used sparingly), he has averaged 20 points and 10.1 rebounds. Those numbers are pretty good, right? They most certainly are. Randolph has been one of the NBA's most consistent forwards for seven years, averaging between 17 and 23 points and 8 and 11 rebounds in each of those seven seasons. It is no surprise that he now has an All-Star game on his resume.

Now I would like to compare the first 9 seasons of Zach Randolph's career to the first 8-11 seasons of ten similar big name forward/centers of the last 25 or so years. Let's take a look...

For the first nine seasons of his career, Shawn Marion averaged 18.3 points and 10 rebounds. For the first ten seasons of his career, Alonzo Mourning averaged 20.3 points and 9.8 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Elton Brand averaged 20.3 points and 10.2 rebounds.
For the first ten seasons of his career, Derrick Coleman averaged 18.5 points and 10 rebounds.
For the first ten seasons of his career, Terry Cummings averaged 21.3 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Antoine Walker averaged 19.8 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Vin Baker averaged 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds.
For the first eight seasons of his career, Tom Gugliotta averaged 16.4 points and 8.7 rebounds.
For the first eleven seasons of his career, Shawn Kemp averaged 16.8 points and 9.5 rebounds.
For the first nine seasons of his career, Buck Williams averaged 16.1 points and 11.7 rebounds.

Man, those are great numbers! Take notice of how similar those players were to Randolph in his first nine seasons (17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds). Now, let's look at how those players did after they finished their first nine or ten seasons.

In his next two seasons, Marion averaged12.4 points and 7.4 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Mourning averaged 7.8 points and 4.8 rebounds.
In his next two seasons, Brand averaged 13.3 points and 6.8 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Coleman averaged 10.4 points and 6.9 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Cummings averaged 7.4 points and 4.9 rebounds.
In his next three seasons, Walker averaged 9.8 points and 4.5 rebounds.
In his next four seasons, Baker averaged 6.1 points and 3.8 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Gugliotta averaged 5.1 points and 4.1 rebounds.
In his next three seasons, Kemp averaged 6.5 points and 4.5 rebounds.
In his next five seasons, Williams averaged 10 points and 9 rebounds.

As you can see, there was an incredible statistical drop-off for every player on that list! Just a couple short years after they were making the All-NBA team, they were riding the bench and poisoning their locker rooms. Those ten players' points-per-game dropped by an average of 9.6 points and their rebounds fell by an average of 3.9. If Randolph's next few seasons go normally, he will average around 8 points and 5 rebounds. Should the Grizzlies pay millions for 8 points and 5 boards? I say no.

Will Randolph's next few seasons happen this way? Who knows. I do expect him to have another big year this year (I'm thinking 17-19 points and 10-11 rebounds) and then rapidly decline like his predecessors. But here's the kicker: we have Randolph under contract for exactly one more year!!! That means we can reap his benefits while he still has them and then get rid of him at the perfect time, right before he starts to fade.

Chris and Michael, please let someone else overpay for a veteran forward who, if history repeats itself yet again, will be a waste of space in three years. If we sign Randolph to a four or five year deal, it will cripple the franchise. Like I said, he will never get more money than he can this offseason. Don't let the Grizzlies be the ones giving it to him.

Owen