Griz Extend Qualifying Offer to Gay (But not Brewer)

On the eve of the biggest free agency period in NBA history, the Memphis Grizzlies chose to extend a $4 million qualifying offer to small forward Rudy Gay, officially making him a restricted free agent. The Grizzlies now have the right of first refusal in his contract negotiations. However, the team did not extend an offer to guard/forward Ronnie Brewer. He is now an unrestricted free agent. Why didn't we make Brewer an offer? What does all this mean? What happens now? Hold you horses, Griz fans, we're getting there.

Let's talk about Brewer first. Do you remember in February when the Griz traded a 2011 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz ion exchange for Brewer? Do you remeber GM Chris Wallace talking about how Brewer was "a winning basketball player" and would be a great addition to the team? Do you remember how, thanks to a groin tear, Brewer appeared in just 8 games for the Grizzlies? If you remember all of those things, then you will realize how ludicrous it is that the Grizzlies did not make Brewer a restricted free agent. If he does not re-sign with the team, we will have traded a first round draft pick for 80 minutes, 3-13 shooting and 8 points. Wow. Not even the Pau Gasol trade was that lopsided. Now, I know it is no fault of the Grizzlies that Brewer got injured. But the fact that the team is now kicking him to the curb is astounding. Heisley, you of all people should know that you'd want to get some sort of return on your investment. But this? I didn't even think you were capable. The funniest part of the whole thing is that the Grizzlies insist that they will try to re-sign Brewer. Why in the world would he want to come back to a team where he was relegated to a backup role, got injured and watched his new team collapse at the end of the year? No one can blame you if you head for greener pastures, Ronnie.

How, then, does this decision affect the re-signing of Rudy Gay? According to Heisley and Wallace, it means that the Grizzlies will now have even more money to match any offer Gay might receive. For the past 6 months, Michael Heisley has been saying to anyone that will listen that re-signing Gay is the team's number one goal this offseason. For the first time, I actually believe Heisley on this. It would be too big a hit on his pride to let Rudy walk after declaring for so long that he would remain a Grizzly. He isn't going to want to match the big contract offer Rudy will receive (likely from the Minnesota Timberwolves), but he really isn't going to have a choice. If Rudy were to leave Memphis, the team would lose more than just its star player. Fans would disown the team and the city would lose arguably its most popular player. Like it or not, Rudy has become the face of the franchise. Losing him would be a huge hit.

There is one situation in which I would be OK with Rudy leaving, however, and that is if a team offers him a near-max contract of something in the area of 5 years/$65 million. Sorry, Rudy, but that's just too much to pay. We have to think about the long term here and if we sign you to that huge contract, that cripples us in negotiating with Zach Randolph, OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in the next few years. Numerous NBA teams have been ruined because they gave a max contract to a player who wasn't worth it. I don't want that to be the Grizzlies. If a team did offer Gay $60-70 million, I would be fine with us letting him go and pursuing another small forward and building around our other four starters.

So, now that free agency has begun, what do we know? First, and most importantly, we know that the Grizzlies brass will do everything they can to re-sign Rudy Gay. Second, we know that Ronnie Brewer's days in Memphis are likely over. Third, we know that, with Brewer gone, the pressure on Xavier Henry, Sam Young and Darrell Arthur to perform just got much bigger.

Where do we go from here? Well, teams can begin talking to Gay today about signing with them. There are no official plans for him to meet with any team, but talks with the T-Wolves appear likely. Also, any team that loses the LeBron/Bosh/Wade sweepstakes (Knicks, Nets, Clippers and Cavaliers, possibly) might target Gay as a Plan B. Contracts cannot be signed until July 8, so it will be at least a week before anything is made official. If a team does make an offer to Gay, the Grizzlies will have the opportunity to match the deal. If they do, Gay remains a Grizzly. If not, it's bye bye Rudy.

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Owen