More Rudy Gay Thoughts

With the entire basketball universe losing its collective head over the free agency period, it feels good to take a few minutes off from the insanity and think about something else. Unfortunately, I can't do that. This free agency period means too much to the NBA (and the Grizzlies) and I couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I didn't digest every morsel of news and rumor.

As far as the Grizzlies are concerned, Rudy Gay's negotiations with the Grizzlies and other teams are front page news. While scouring the Internet for news and analyzing whether or not keeping Rudy Gay would be a good idea (I'll publish my theories on that in a couple days), I have read many different sports blogs trying to get more information on Rudy and the Griz. Then I remembered a GrizzLife post from February that goes a long way in explaining things. The following is an edited-for-space version of Jumpshot Griesbeck's post "Why Rudy Gay will play for the Washington Wizards next season, and why I'm okay with it:"
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It is no secret that this summer's free agent market is the biggest in NBA history. Now, obviously, this summer is really about LeBron and everyone else. But that "everyone else" is pretty good. Some teams, as much as they'd like to think they have a chance at one of the superstars, just don't...So what are those teams going to do? Most people think that these teams are going to get desperate and offer a huge contract to a second-tier player.

Now, let's talk about the Grizzlies and Rudy Gay. Gay is a restricted free agent, meaning that, at the end of the day, if the Grizzlies want Gay to stay in Memphis, they can have their way. But the cards point toward another outcome. Michael Heisley has made it very clear that he is not looking to spend alot of money. He is not going to go out and sign free agents that will put the Grizzlies near the NBA's highest payrolls, and then watch the team get swept in three straight playoff series, again. And with the recent signing of Ronnie Brewer, I don't care how much Heisley and Wallace deny it...it does not look like Rudy Gay will be in Memphis next season.

Fearless prediction: Rudy Gay will play for the Wizards next season. Why I am okay with it: Right now, the Grizzlies have 5 legitimate players--players that other teams might actually want. Those players are Gasol, Mayo, Randolph, Gay, and Brewer. Of those five, I believe Rudy Gay is the most dispensable, and I will tell you why.

Reason #1: There are other Rudy Gays in the NBA. Athletic 6-8 swing men aren't exactly going out of style. In contrast, Marc Gasols are hard to find.

Reason #2: (Get ready...) Rudy Gay is a lackluster defender. This is a shock to...no one. Did you see Rudy's defense on the Kobe game-winner the other night? He handled that screen for Kobe about as well as JP handles cars in 'Angels in the Outfield'.

[Note: Since Ronnie Brewer is no longer a restricted free agent, take the following points with a grain of salt. The Grizzlies can still sign Brewer, of course; he is just not a restricted free agent.]

Reason #3: Not re-signing Rudy Gay means the Grizzlies will keep Ronnie Brewer. Unfortunately, Ronnie was hurt in his Memphis debut last week. But in the long run, I think that injury will work out for good. Ronnie gets less time to prove himself, and less time to tempt possible suitors into offering him a big deal this summer. It makes it easier for Memphis to re-sign him, and, like Gay, he is restricted (if we want him, we can have him).

Reason #4: Ronnie Brewer works into the Grizzlies future better than Rudy Gay. He is still young, he brings local interest, and he is one of the better perimeter defenders in the NBA. (If Brewer is on Kobe the other night, that shot might not go in...) At 6-7, Brewer is versatile, can play the 2 or the 3, and gives the Grizzlies the option to move O.J. to the point and put Ronnie at the 2. He can slash, and he is not a black hole. He is not a franchise player, but he doesn't have to be paid like one either.

Reason #5: Keeping Brewer, and not Gay, gives the Grizzlies more space to re-sign Randolph and O.J. If you think that this summer is critical for the Grizzlies, think about the summer after. Gasol, Randolph, and Mayo are all free-agents--the three most valuable assets in our franchise right now. To think that 1 or 2 of these could be gone is scary...

So there you have it. Gay brings local flare to the East Coast, and Brewer brings it to the Mid-South. Washington gets their scorer, Memphis gets some flexibility.Down the road, a legitimate-point-guard-not-named-Michael Conley, O.J. Mayo, Ronnie Brewer, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol sounds like a pretty good starting five to me.
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Like I said, Griesbeck's analysis isn't perfect. The Ronnie Brewer situation has changed drastically since February. But his thoughts about Rudy Gay still hold a lot of water. Should we re-sign Gay? My answer right now is maybe. In a few days, I'll post my complete thoughts.

I've been thinking a lot of Gay thoughts lately,
Owen