Four days ago, I wrote about how the Grizzlies #12 draft pick, Xavier Henry, was in a contract dispute with the team over a 20% bonus. Honestly, I expected the dispute to be resolved by now. It isn't. And it may never be. This situation is worse than Grizzlies fans realize and is absolutely devestating to the team. If Henry ever does sign, he will play lazy, uninspired basketball and give new meaning to the word "coasting." And who could blame him? He has been treated like dirt during the entire negotiating process. We have already sent a message to the rest of the league that we treat our players horribly. We were lucky to get Tony Allen this summer, but based on the Xavier negotiations, he may be the last quality free agent we ever get. And if you thought that draft prospects didn't want to work out for the Grizzlies this year, just wait until next year. You ain't seen nothin' yet. I pray that I'm wrong about all this, but let me tell you how I think the next few months will play out in Grizz-land.
First, I do not think Xavier Henry will ever sign with the Memphis Grizzlies. The contract talks are already beyond acrimonious and neither side seems willing to budge. Michael Heisley is not going to give Henry an extra 20% and Arn Tellem is not going to accept anything less for his client. I give it one to two weeks (possibly sooner) before there is a leaked announcement along the lines of "Grizzlies unable to come to terms with Henry." This announcement will bring with it mockery and laughter from the national media, who will run Heisley, Wallace and the Grizzlies through the mud while defending Henry/Tellem. In the Age of LeBron, do you honestly think anyone will side with the owner over the player???
Shortly after that first announcement, the team will announce that it is shopping Henry. More mockery will follow as pundits compare the situation to Steve Franics' refusal to sign with the team in 1999. Offers from teams will come quickly, but none will become official for a few days. My guess is that Henry will go to the Bucks, Hornets, Nuggets or Cavaliers in exchange for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (to fill the backup SF role), Julian Wright (ditto), Anthony Carter (to fill the backup PG role) or Sebastian Telfair (ditto). Honestly, all those deals look pretty good right now, which is sad because I believe Henry will develop into a quality NBA 6th man in the next two to three years.
Those events will bring us to the start of the season, where our reserves will be Tony Allen, Sam Young, Hasheem Thabeet, Darrell Arthur and one of the above-named players. That is not a terrible team, but we would be an injury-to-a-starter away from the 2011 season going down the drain. If that happens, prepare for the worst.
You heard it here first: if the Grizzlies do not make the playoffs in 2010-2011, the team will be sold and moved within the next three years. Here's why: we will have gone 5 years without a playoff appearance. We will have been the laughingstock of the league because of the Xavier Henry debacle. We will be losing marquee players Zach Randolph (his contract will be up), Marc Gasol (ditto) and Mike Conley (ditto) in the summer of 2011 because they would rather retire than re-sign with the miserable Grizzlies. All that will remain will be an overpaid Rudy, a petulant OJ Mayo, Allen, Young, Thabeet and Greivis Vasquez. Heisley will panic, realize how much money he has lost on the team and do everything in his power to sell. Finally, some rich investor will buy the team, who will become either the Las Vegas Dice or the Seattle Grizzlies. And that will be the end of professional basketball in Memphis.
But, wait, I'm not going to end a post like that; who wants to be depressed all day?? Here is a plausible, happier scenario: Henry will sign within the next two weeks when Heisley finally caves in. Training camp will go smoothly and the team will begin the regular season on a high note. In a fine season, the Grizzlies will win around 50 games and will be the 6th seed in the Western Conference playoffs. In the playoffs, we will steal a win or two from the 3rd-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, ultimately losing the series but at least garnering the franchise's only playoff victory. In the summer of 2011, Heisley, Wallace & Co. will somehow shrewdly manage negotiations with and re-sign Gasol, execute a good trade for Conley and use spare cash from Randolph's departure to buy a quality point guard or small forward and everything will be OK.
Which scenario will happen, then: the first or the second? I would like to believe that the second unfolds, but everything I know about the Grizzlies tells me that it will happen the first way. Don't get me wrong, I love the Grizzlies and want only good things for the team. But if we're being honest, that first scenario is much more likely than the second.
Sorry if I made you depressed,
Owen
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I understand your pessimism regarding Michael Heisley. He is the problem that is holding this franchise back. When you hear Heisley discuss the problems of this franchise he seems to always want to pin the problems on the fan base. He apparently believes more fans in the seats would make the players he hand picks better at basketball. Memphis is a basketball town. The University of Memphis Tigers had the eighth highest attendance average in college basketball last year, in the very same arena that the Grizzlies play in downtown. Don't tell me the problem is with the city. Michael Heisley has systematically alienated the entire city with one debacle and bad decision after another since the relocation from Vancouver. It all started with the way he Heisley treated the local minority owners causing them to unload almost all of their stake in the franchise. Heisley has got a few things right over the years, but that doesn't excuse all the blunders, his childish stubbornness, and his Forum sized ego . His problem is a common problem in professional sports, Heisley thinks he is a basketball expert and makes roster decisions that are usually left to the GM in other franchises. When a franchise has long lasting problems look no further than the owner and usually you will find the culprit.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I think the notion that the entire future of this franchise lay in balance over the Henry dispute is absurd. Sign Henry and we will enjoy success, don't sign him and it will surely result in a losing season and the teams relocation to another city within three years. You must think Henry is the next Jordan. Franchises aren't lost with one stupid move, it is a series of stupid moves that alienate the public over time. The person that wrote this has no knowledge of the reality that due to a ten year lease at the Fed Ex Forum, the Memphis Grizzlies aren't going anywhere in the next three years. It will be at least eight years before it is financially possible to move. The fans of Memphis must realize this, I often hear local people say that they are just going to move soon anyway. I think a lot of people don't go to games for this very reason, they expect the franchise to leave town any year now. This is simply not true, they are not going anywhere for a long time. This attitude will ensure that they do eventually leave. I find it hard to go to the games because I don't like supporting Heisley. I should get over this too because if the city doesn't support the team, in time they will relocate. That would not be good for our city. I think if Heisley will sell at a reasonable price so we could get a new owner in Memphis, or if our current owner found a way to change his ways, the potential for Grizzly basketball in Memphis could be something really special. San Antonio has a successful small market team, and they don't even sell out playoff games as they march on to the championship every other year. That would not happen in this town, I know Memphis would support a well run organization. Instead we are laughed at and mocked because of the actions of our Chicago native owner.