LeBron: What Could Have Been

Take a trip with me back to May 22, 2003. On that night, the NBA conducted the lottery for the 2003 Draft. As the draft order was slowly revealed, it came down to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Cleveland Cavaliers for the #1 pick. The Grizzlies had a 6.4% chance to win the pick; the Cavs had a 22% to land it. Thanks to a 1997 trade with the Detroit Pistons for the immortal Otis Thorpe, if Memphis was awarded any pick but the #1, the selection would be sent to the Pistons. It was all or nothing for the Grizzlies: we would either get the #1 pick or get shut out of the deepest draft in history.

You know how it ended; Cleveland got the #1 pick and the rights to draft high school phenom LeBron James, who was being hailed as the greatest prospect ever. The Grizzlies got nothing.

It makes me legitimately sad to write these words, but let's see what would have happened if the Grizzlies had landed the #1 pick and drafted LeBron...

2003-2004 Season
First, let's look at how the Grizzlies did that year. Under the coaching of Hubie Brown (in his first full season as Griz coach), the 9-man rotation of Jason Williams (PG), Mike Miller (SG), James Posey (SF), Pau Gasol (PF), Lorenzen Wright (C), Bonzi Wells (Bench-SF) Shane Battier (Bench-F), Stromile Swift (Bench-F) and Earl Watson (Bench-PG) went 50-32 and lost to the San Antonio Spurs in the 1st round of the playoffs. Now add a rookie LeBron James to that mix.

In his rookie season, LeBron averaged 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists and was named Rookie-of-the-Year.

With the Grizzlies, he would have started immediately at SF. Our starting lineup would have been J-Will, Miller, LeBron, Pau and Lorenzen. Two of the best role players of the past 15 years (Posey and Battier) would have come off the bench to provide defense and hustle. Stromile and 3-point specialist Wesley Person would have provided the scoring off the bench, and Earl would have added PG depth. If a LeBron-less Grizzlies won 50 games, I think it's safe to say he would have added at least 7 to that number. So let's be reasonable and say the 2004 Grizzlies would have gone 57-25.

That record would have given us the #3 seed in the playoffs and we would have faced the now-6th seeded Dallas Mavericks. Would our 2004 lineup have bested the Mavs, who lost to the Kings in reality? Since their top 7 were Steve Nash (PG), Marquis Daniels (SG), Michael Finley (SF), Dirk Nowitzki (PF) and Antoine Walker (C), with Josh Howard and Antwan Jamison coming off the bench, I'm going to say we would have lost to the Mavs in 7 games. Nash would have feasted on J-Will, Dirk would have pounded a then-weak Pau and the rest of the Mavs would have been too much for the young, playoff-inexperienced Grizzlies to handle. But at least we would have won a playoff game...

2004 Draft
Since the 2003-2004 "with-LeBron" Grizzlies likely would not have traded Wesley Person and the 2004 #23 pick to the TrailBlazers in exchange for Bonzi Wells, we would have, based on our improved record, likely had the 27th selection in the 2004 Draft. At that point in the draft, Sasha Vujacic would have been the best player available. Let's assume that we would have taken him, since we needed guard help to complement a forward-heavy roster.

2004-2005 Season
First, how did the real 2004-2005 Grizzlies do? The rotation of Gasol, Miller, Wells, Williams, Swift, Battier, Wright, Brian Cardinal and Posey finished the regular season with a 45-37 record. In the playoffs, the 8th-seeded Grizzlies were swept by the Phoenix Suns in the first round.

Again, add sophomore LeBron to the mix. In his 2nd year, James averaged 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists while being named to the All-NBA 2nd Team.

With the Grizzlies, he would have become the clear alpha dog on the team. The lineup from "fantasy-2004" would remain virtually the same in "fantasy-2005." However, LeBron would have come into his own and added at least 12 wins to the "real-2005" Grizzlies. Additionally, rookie Sasha Vujacic would not have added much to the team, since he did not develop into a solid role player until his second season. With Lebron, the Grizzlies would have finished the regular season at 57-25, good for the 5th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

Again, the Grizzlies would have faced the Mavericks in the 1st round. This time, however, things would have turned out differently. With Steve Nash gone to Phoenix, the Mavericks would not have enough weapons to hang with LeBron and the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies would have won the series in 5 or 6 games.

In the 2nd round, the Grizzlies would have faced the #1-seeded Phoenix Suns, who won 62 games in 2005. With a lineup of Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the Suns would have been a formidable matchup for the Grizzlies. I believe the Grizzlies-Suns series would have gone to 7 games, but that the 7-Seconds-or-Less-Era Suns would have bested the Grizzlies. Although LeBron&Co. would have put up an epic fight, we wouldn't have been good enough defensively to stop the Suns.

2005 Draft
Based on a "fantasy record" of 57-25, the Grizzlies likely would have picked 27th in the 2005 Draft. At that point, forwards and centers were the best players available. I believe the Grizzlies would have selected a center, since Lorenzen Wright was aging and Brian Cardinal was not a viable option at center. The selection would have likely been David Lee.

2005-2006 Season
First, how did the real 2006 Grizzlies do? A lineup of Chucky Atkins, Shane Battier, Eddie Jones, Pau Gasol and Jake Tsakilidis led the Grizzlies to a 49-33 record. In the playoffs, the Grizzlies were the 5th seed in the West and were swept by the 4th-seeded Mavericks.

Again, add third-year LeBron to the mix. In 2006, LeBron averaged an astounding 31.4 points, 7 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game and garnered All-NBA First Team honors.

The "fantasy-2006" Memphis Grizzlies lineup would have been hard to predict, since we shipped J-Will and Posey to the Heat in exchange for Eddie Jones before the season began. Would we have done that if we had been advancing in the playoffs and had the league's most promising player on our roster?? Probably not.

Our lineup would have been J-Will (PG), Miller (SG), LeBron (SF), Pau (PF) and Lorenzen/David Lee at center. Posey and Battier would have shared the 6th man role and Damon Stoudemire would have provided veteran depth at guard. Rookie David Lee would likely have made slightly more of an impact than rookie Hakim Warrick did, but not much more. Keep in mind: without LeBron on the Griz, Gasol put a 20-9 in '06, Miller averaged 14 and shot 40% from 3 and J-Will had a great year (14 pts and 5 assists) in Miami. Any way you slice it, the 2006 Memphis Grizzlies would have been deadly. The above team, with a truly elite LeBron, would have been at least 15 wins better than in real life. That's right; the 2006 Grizzlies likely would have finished 62-20, finished with a better record than division rival San Antonio and would have been the #1 seed in the West.

In the first round, we would have faced the 8th-seeded Sacramento Kings. We would have obliterated the scrappy Kings, winning in 4 or 5 games.

In the second round, we would have faced the winner of the Denver-Dallas series. Since the real 2006 Mavs reached the finals, let's say they advanced to face the Grizz. In yet another "fantasy" Grizz-Mavs matchup, the "fantasy 2006 Grizzlies" would have likely defeated the Dirk-led Mavericks. Remember, the real 2006 Grizzlies lost to the real 2006 Mavericks by an average of 14 points. You don't think having LeBron (who averaged a 30-8-6 in the playoffs) would have completely flipped those results?? The series would have likely stretched to 6 or 7 games, with the Grizzlies winning due to their ability to bottle up Dallas' comparitively weak supporting cast.

In the Western Conference Finals, the "fantasy" 2006 Grizzlies would have squared off against Tim Duncan and the San Antonio, who would have likely been fresh off a victory over the Phoenix Suns in the Western Semifinals. This Grizzlies-Spurs series would have been an absolute classic. Two of the best players in the game, LeBron and Duncan, against each other plus a supporting cast of Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Mike Miller and Manu Ginobili. Additionally, four of the greatest role players of all time would have been in the series: Battier and Posey for the Grizzlies and Bruce Bowen and "Big Shot" Robert Horry for the Spurs. For a basketball fan, this series would have been heaven.

Since this is a fantasy matchup, and I'm controlling it, let's say that the Grizzlies win in a 7-game classic. This is not an unrealistic fantasy prediction. Although the Spurs would have been the more playoff-seasoned team, the Grizzlies would have had some legit playoff experience under their belts as well. I think the Grizzlies would prevail since Gasol would have been able to bottle up Duncan just enough to allow LeBron to take over the series. Additionally, the "fantasy" 2006 Grizzlies supporting cast would have been better than the 2006 Spurs supporting cast.

Following a victory over the Spurs, the Grizzlies would have advanced to the NBA Finals to face the Dwyane Wade-led Miami Heat. This hypothetical matchup would have been difficult to predict, since a couple of the pieces of Miami's team came in a trade before the season began. However, we can analyze the matchup based on a each team's top 3 players. For Memphis, LeBron, Pau and Miller would have led the way. Wade, Shaq and Antoine Walker would have paced the Heat.

Although the Grizzlies would have fought valiantly against the Heat, I think that the Wade-Shaq combo would have been too much for LeBron & Co. to overcome. Wade had one of the best Finals performances of all time that year and would have scored easily on the Grizzlies. LeBron would not have gone down without a fight, but knowing what we do now about LeBron, there is no way he would have performed well in crunch time. It would have been the duel of the century, LeBron vs. D-Wade, but Wade would have come out on top.

With that, the Grizzlies 2006 season would have ended. We would have been NBA runners-up and would have provided NBA diehards with legendary series against the Mavericks, Spurs and Heat.

The LeBron Era would also have been over. His rookie contract would have been up and he would likely have taken his talents elsewhere. But it's nice (or excruciatingly painful) to think about what might have been. If only our ping pong ball had come up, LeBron would have been a Grizzly, we would have been a deadly team for 3 years (instead of just a decent team) and we would have had a storybook run in the 2006 playoffs. Additionally, LeBron would have brought millions to the city of Memphis and we would now be a legitimate NBA franchise.

Instead, he went to the Cavaliers. The Grizzlies got swept three years in a row and are now the laughingstock of the NBA.

If only that ping pong ball had been different...

Owen